Consumables Digest
We are hosting our monthly Consumables Digest call today at 12:30 PM ET.
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EVENT DETAILS:
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WE WILL EXPLORE THE FOLLOWING TOPICS:
- A fresh recap of long and short ideas, including CELH and KR.
- A brief recap of important developments.
- Top client questions during the month.
- Trends we are modeling going into 2024.
- Noteworthy takeaways from management calls.
- Discuss the pushback and feedback from our recent Black Book calls.
- Discuss the developing trends we saw during the 3Q23 earnings period.
- Revisit changes to our Position Monitors, including BRBR and STKL.
We will also take live questions but will keep our call's length to 30 minutes.
The busiest day of the year for grocers (GO, KR, ACI)
The Wednesday before Thanksgiving is generally considered supermarkets' busiest day of the year. Grocery stores saw a 92.5% increase in visits last Wednesday compared to the previous six Wednesdays on average. The pre-holiday spike was the largest in at least four years. Placer.ai said traditional grocers saw the biggest boost in traffic compared to the value and limited assortment food retailers. Albertsons had the largest traffic increase at 108%, followed by Safeway at 95.3%, Kroger at 89.7%, and Grocery Outlet at 41.9%. Traffic to the Grocery Outlet decreased by 3% points compared to the prior year.
Drinksgiving (BUD, TAP, STZ)
BeerBoard, an on-premise market research firm, said draft beer volumes decreased by 2.5% YOY the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Also known as Blackout Wednesday, the date is one of the busiest nights for bars. On-premise volumes were 45% larger than the previous Wednesday. Last year, Thanksgiving Eve draft volumes decreased by 17.1% YOY. Bud Light was the third most poured, down from #1 last year. Michelob Ultra moved up one spot to #1, while Miller Lite moved up one spot to #2. Coors Light and Modelo Especial were #4 and #5 respectively.
People may have shifted to off-premise celebrations instead. Beer sales increased 6.5% YOY, with volumes up 4.6% in the week that ended November 19. That represents an acceleration from the prior week’s 2.1% YOY increase in sales and 0.2% increase in volumes. Beer sales outpaced spirits’ 2.7% sales increase and 4.3% volume increase. Wine sales decreased by 2.6%, with volumes down by 5.6%.
Projecting volume growth (MNST)
Circana is projecting modest food and beverage volume growth in 2024 after three years of volume declines. Circana said, “Our research shows that several factors will impact food and beverage growth throughout 2024, including an improving macroeconomic environment and growing promotional investments.” Circana predicts the beverage and deli sectors will continue outperforming food and beverage unit sales in 2024. Protein and energy drinks are predicted to lead beverage growth. The deli department is expected to be led by convenient grab-and-go options. Industry participants are underestimating the volume response to disinflation or deflation when most companies are adding promotions and private label is gaining share.
