Cyber Monday coffee machines (KDP)
Consumers appear to be attracted to deals this holiday. Black Friday sales were estimated by MasterCard SpendingPulse to have increased by 2.5% over last year’s shopping event, with online sales up 8.5% and in-person sales up 1.1%. Adobe estimates Black Friday online sales increased by 7.5% YOY. Store traffic was estimated to be up 4.6% by Sensormatic Solutions. Sensormatic Solutions’ head of retail consulting said, “This marked the most significant Black Friday increase that his organization has seen in recent memory.”
Cyber Monday is the largest online sales day of the year. Coffee machines were a top Cyber Monday sale item. The price points, recurring sales of pods, consumer utility, and giftable nature make the category a popular highlighted category.
Coffee boost (KDP)
A 2022 survey conducted by Lincoln Park Strategies of 1,000 adults reported that 93% of Americans consume caffeine. 75% consume caffeine at least once a day, and 25% consume it three times or more daily. A Michigan State University study found that “caffeine improved the ability to pay attention in sleep-deprived participants so well that their performance was similar to people who slept all night.” In addition, giving caffeine to people who had a full night of sleep also boosted their performance. However, caffeine did not reduce placekeeping errors. Study participants who were allowed to nap for 30 or 60 minutes performed no better than participants who did not nap. So, caffeine is effective at maintaining alertness but does not improve your math scores. There is a reason offices have Keurig machines.
Flu monitor (PRGO, HLN, RKT.LN)
Seasonal influenza activity started slowly but has picked up. Nationwide, 3.7% of patient visits reported through the CDC were due to respiratory illness. Respiratory illness is now above the national baseline, with multiple viruses co-circulating, as seen in the cart below. The CDC estimates that there have been at least 1.2 million illnesses, 12,000 hospitalizations, and 740 deaths from flu so far this season. Reckitt and Perrigo recently acknowledged the difficult comparisons in the U.S. from last year’s cough and cold season. They both expressed confidence in reaching their targets, which was still early in the season. Last year’s cough and cold season started off strong but tailed off. We are more likely to hear about difficult comparisons in the first half of the season, but there is potential for Q1 to have higher illness incidences. Cough/cold is between 15-20% of Perrigo’s revenues, roughly 15% of Haleon’s revenues, and 2% of Kenvue’s global revenues.
