An International Briefing – What is going on?
President Joe Biden met with rival Xi Jinping, president of China, in San Francisco and seemingly reduced tensions from a boil. Both sides sought a new “plateau” in a relationship that has been in a downward spiral. Back at home in Washington, however, a new and deeply conservative Speaker of the House puts the White House’s national security priorities in jeopardy.
Israel continues its invasion of the Gaza Strip after a harrowing attack by Hamas, and it has put its international reputation on the line as the number of Palestinian dead grows each day. In response, the Middle East has erupted into turmoil, and the possibility of a wider conflict cannot be ignored. Diplomatic efforts to achieve greater peace and stability have been put on hold while further escalation and conflict seem ever more possible.
Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, the Tories underwent a leadership shakeup that is a major step back from the hard right swing it has taken since Brexit. This is clearly tied to PM Sunak’s efforts to prepare for national elections in the next year and mirrors a similar trend across Europe. This is a relief to those who fear governments are moving away from liberal democracy.
We are witnessing a ballooning number of issues challenging the world and the leaders who govern it. It has been a long time since the globe has contended with so many high-stakes issues at once: war, diplomacy, militancy, leadership disputes or the countless items connected to such problems.
Here is a brief review some of the biggest items that have occurred in just the past few weeks. We'll save the Argentinian and European elections for another day.
Biden’s meeting with Xi at APEC
In recent years, there likely has not been a meeting more discussed or fussed over than that between Biden and Xi. This meeting at Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), an international government forum that promotes free trade in the region, appeared to be a reset – or at the very least a signal that Xi has put his “wolf warrior” diplomacy effort on hold and wishes to halt the move towards greater and greater tensions.
The Chinese economy has “sputtered." It faces a credit crisis and so-called “debt bomb”, and Xi appeared willing to show a greater willingness to cooperate with the White House. Biden called it “some of the most constructive and productive discussions we’ve had”, and Xi insisted that the doors between the two superpowers “cannot be closed again."
While we should all remain skeptical that the U.S. and China’s relationship will remain steady for years to come after this rapprochement, it is worth acknowledging that there were some important developments:
- The U.S. and China will resume military-to-military communications. This is aimed at avoiding a major crisis that might occur in the Pacific and in other regions where the two superpowers have military forces deployed. Beijing cut their links last year after Nancy Pelosi, then serving as House Speaker, visited Taiwan. Now that dialogue has returned, it will help avoid any accident or misreading of intent that might lead to conflict.
- Both countries said they had found common ground on addressing carbon emissions, reducing methane emissions, and replacing a large segment of fossil fuel consumption with renewable energy by 2030.
- Biden and Xi agreed to address drug trafficking and the illicit sale of fentanyl. Around 75,000 people in the U.S. died due to the powerful synthetic opioid last year. China has finally agreed to crack down on chemical companies that export key ingredients needed for fentanyl production. While Beijing has clamped down on direct U.S. shipments, it has allowed the trade to shift its routes through Mexico – which has also helped support powerful drug cartels.
- Dialogue looks likely to continue between the two presidents, leading to a temporary thaw in U.S.-China relations (Xi even said that he would send new pandas to American zoos). Xi said he would welcome Biden’s call any time, which is a bit more complex than the Chinese president made it appear, and both agreed that they needed to avoid “misconceptions or miscommunications”. Nevertheless, Biden still called Xi a dictator when asked for his thoughts by a reporter.
Biden’s national security budget
If Biden had hoped that he would see greater support on Capitol Hill for his national security priorities, he is mistaken. He had proposed a supplemental budget of 106 billion for military aid to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, the border, and other issues. This request now appears dead on arrival.
Conservative hardliners ousted Kevin McCarthy from his post as Speaker of the House over his work with Democrats to keep the government open. Congressional Republicans then paralyzed the government for weeks because they could not agree on a new Speaker.
They finally elected a little-known Louisiana congressman, Mike Johnson. He has close ties to the isolationist wing of the party that opposes additional military aid to Ukraine. Johnson’s first proposal in response to Biden’s was 14 billion for Israel, which he balanced out by cutting funding from the IRS.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that this would cost the government money due to a loss of tax collection and cause the deficit to grow. The Senate, which government insiders said would likely pass Biden’s funding request on a bipartisan basis by 80 or more votes, was never going to support Johnson’s proposal.
That means that for the forseable future there will not be any additional funds for Ukraine, Israel, or any of these other major national security issues. It also sends a message to the rest of the world that America’s inability to govern or agree on key issues of international security.
Israel-Gaza War
On October 7 about 1,500 Hamas gunmen crossed the border from the Gaza Strip and attacked nearby border communities and outposts largely populated by Israeli Jews. They killed about 1,200 people, including women, children, the elderly, as well as Israeli soldiers, and took over 200 people hostages (including some Americans). The images from their assault were incredibly graphic, and the stories of their horrific treatment of Israelis civilians were appalling and drew international condemnation.
Israel responded with constant bombardment of the Gaza Strip and a military operation to seize control of the small, densely populated strip of land that over 2 million Palestinians call home. More than 12,000 people have been killed since the operation began, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government’s goal is to wipe out Hamas in Gaza with minimal civilian casualties, but he admitted “unfortunately, we’re not successful” with respect to limiting civilian casualties. That lack of success has jeopardized Israel’s credibility and sympathy for the country globally. It is also creating political discontent in the West, as a growing number of voters challenge their government’s continued support for Israel. Voting blocs, including the Democrats in the U.S. and the Labor Party in the U.K. could see their unity crumble over the issue resulting in greater political turmoil.
Israel and the U.S. have put their credibility at risk over their assertion that Hamas had a headquarters under Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza. Despite capturing the complex, which consists of numerous buildings, there appears to be little evidence so far to support that contention. It is known, however, that when the Israelis built the hospital in the 1970s a massive basement was constructed.
Israel and its allies must remember this war is ultimately a political issue that they must resolve with a clear plan. How do they use military force as a “means” to shape a more stable future? If they occupy and control all of Gaza, what will their next step be?
Middle East in turmoil
Just before Hamas terrorists pursued their assault, Israel and Saudi Arabia appeared to be close to a normalization of diplomatic ties. This would be a major geopolitical development in the region. But the attack and Israel’s response has placed that effort on hold and made it exceedingly difficult for those Arab countries that have diplomatic ties with the Jewish state.
Following the signing of the “Abraham Accords” in 2020, five Arab states had diplomatic ties with Israel: the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco. Sudan, a predominantly Muslim country, was also part of Abraham Accords but has not finalized its participation.
This conflict puts this diplomatic effort and deter Iranian aggression in the region in jeopardy. Since the attack by Hamas, which receives significant financial support from Tehran, the Iranians have used the militias and groups they back to attack U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. At least 45 U.S. service members in the Middle East have been injured, some suffering traumatic brain injuries, in these attacks. In response, the U.S. has conducted several airstrikes against these groups, but the attacks have continued.
Houthi rebels in Yemen who are supported by Iran have threatened to “sink your ships” in the Red Sea, launched missile attacks on Israel, and shot down an American surveillance drone. They also posted threats in Hebrew, Arabic and English with a graphic of an Israeli commercial ship on fire, and reportedly used a helicopter to seize a Japanese cargo ship in the last few days.
This is just one small example of the growing fallout emanating from the war in the Gaza Strip, and there is a real danger of escalation in this region. Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has increased its missile and mortar attacks against northern Israel resulting and the evacuation of over 100,000 Israelis. There also has been an increase in attacks by Palestinian groups on the West Bank. Meanwhile, despite a five-day cease fire and hostage exchange, diplomatic efforts that had caused some to suggest a growing peace in the Middle East are at best stagnant.
UK’s leadership shakeup
UK Prime Minister Richi Sunak gave the Home Secretary post to Suella Braverman, a leader on the fringe of the Tory’s right flank, when he arrived at Number 10. That posting was part of his effort to quiet detractors while providing him some breathing room to right the Conservative Party “ship." After 13 years in office, however, it is clear in the polls that the voting public has lost patience with the Tories.
They had particularly lost patience with Braverman, who consistently made headlines for her rhetoric, rather than concrete policies. She had focused on the migration crisis but did so in a way that angered the public. Braverman said “her dream” was to see a planeload of migrants shipped to Rwanda, called her colleagues in Labor members of the “tofu-eating wokerati," sent sensitive government emails to her private Gmail account, attacked members of her own party, called multiculturalism a failure (despite being the daughter of immigrants from Mauritius and Kenya) and contended that homeless people live in tents “as a lifestyle choice."
The final nail in the coffin was her attack on police in a British newspaper. In an op-ed she contended that they had been “easy” on Pro-Palestinian protesters, which she called “hate marchers,” compared their demonstrations to the Troubles in Ireland, and slammed the police for holding a “double standard." On the day of the protest, however, London police were forced to clash much more with far-right counter-protesters.
Sunak moved James Cleverly, who was serving as Foreign Minister and a close ally, into the Home Secretary post. Given the numerous international challenges, however, it appears Sunak wanted a “safe hand” for the Foreign Ministry.
In a move that surprised the international community and most people in the United Kingdom, he appointed former Prime Minister David Cameron as Foreign Secretary. Most will remember Cameron as the man who brought Brexit to a referendum and resigned when his effort for the U.K. to “remain” failed. Some experts argue he oversaw one of the biggest foreign policy blunders in British history.
But Cameron is viewed as someone who has a rapport with many international leaders. He can safely guide Sunak’s policy through while showing his staunch support for Ukraine and Israel. His first state visit, in fact, was to Kyiv. What it means for British politics remains to be seen. Early polling suggest very few British voters remember Cameron fondly.
Nevertheless, it shows a rejection of the fringe of the party and appears to be an effort to attract moderate voters that the Tories have lost in recent years. Elections will soon come to the U.K., as Sunak must call them before January 2025.
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Join our Washington chief J.T. Taylor and Hedgeye's geopolitical advisor Col. Jeffrey McCausland for an update on the war between Israel and Hamas with a temporary truce in place amidst growing U.S.-Iran tensions. They will also cover growing unrest in the region, incursions by Hezbollah in the north - as well as waning support for Ukraine on and off Capitol Hill. They'll also discuss where foreign and military aid for Israel and Ukraine stands with a few weeks left before Congress adjourns for the year. And more...
***Please submit your questions in advance***
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2023 AT 11:00 AM
CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link).
