“Do you honestly think you’re ever going to replace this?”
-Old Media Exec at the Toronto Star
That’s what the dude in charge of publishing the Yellow Pages in Toronto told Elon and his brother Kimbal after they tried to tell him about their mapping software business in 1995. That was Elon’s first big win. They sold Zip2 for $307M and Elon got $22M of that.
I know. Tech is cool. Principled Capitalism is even cooler. I love seeing people create new things that disrupt and displace the old. I’ve been doing it, every day, for 15 years, taking down parts of the Old Wall.
So what happens when something gets so big, heavy, and old that it can’t grow? Oh, I know it would be sacrosanct to utter such a thought about Apple (AAPL). So I just did.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
BREAKING: AAPL to introduce the iPhone18!
The first iPhone was introduced in 2007. And now the company is guiding to ZERO growth. So what do you want/need to pay for that? I don’t mean your next phone. I mean the most widely held stock in human history.
Pre today’s drop, AAPL has $2.8 TRILLION in MARKET CAP!
Yes, I’m going all CAPS on you this morning like the boys on the Goldman Prime Broker desk who were pumping out “SQUEEZE HAS LEGS” did yesterday. This is an equal opportunity Street I work on, eh.
Don’t tell anyone but we’re launching coverage on AAPL soon and no matter what my analyst thinks, I’m telling you what my AI thinks about this stock: BEARISH @Hedgeye TREND = Sell AAPL. Here’s The Setup:
A) @Hedgeye TREND Resistance of $181 is above the TOP-end of my Risk Range™ Signal
B) My immediate-term TRADE Risk Range™ Signal = $164-178/share
Never mind what the stock is down this morning. My math means that AAPL should be down -8% from where the Uninformed Volume was chasing it yesterday, and the Risk Range™ Signal will dynamically re-adjust in a downward-dog pattern from there.
Oh, right. You should buy the stock (and any stock) “because the Fed is done hiking.”
Cool. For those of you who don’t work on the GS PB desk and risk managed the 2001 and/or 2008 US Recessions well, you might want to consider that there’s ZERO irony in AAPL having ZERO GROWTH as we officially enter the 2024 US Recession.
Ok. So what do you think you should buy that was straight up on their “SQUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE” notes yesterday?
A) Goldman’s PROFITLESS TECH Basket which was +7.3% ON THE DAY?... or how about
B) Goldman’s LIQUID MOST SHORT Basket which was +6.7% on the day?
Clearly these are the types of exposures a fiduciary should have been pumping you in OCT of 2001 or 2008, no?
Btw, if that’s what the job has become at a “Prime Brokerage”, maybe I should get into that business next. I could show these young bucks how to whip it around RTA Style for real. Instead of their single factor 200-day Moving Monkeys, I’ll use HedgAI. Get today's version for free HERE.
As I’ve explained and illustrated MANY times since this #MOAB (Mother of All Bubbles) in everything from MEGA CAPS to Sam Bankman Fraud’s FTX peaked WHEN The Cycle did in NOV of 2021, they all just want their bubbles back.
P.S. We should be indicting everyone who supported these Crypto scammers and frauds this morning, btw.
Moving along. What to do next? Should we just park the #process at the door again and just chase? Is the new narrative BUY profitless companies and frauds again … because… “on a relative basis to zero growth at AAPL, they are attractive”?
Seriously. If you didn’t get serious about The Cycle in either JAN of 2022 or JUL of 2023, it’s time.
Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets:
UST 10yr Yield 4.63-5.01% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.94-5.12% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 71.10-73.86 (bearish)
SPX 4077-4331 (bearish)
NASDAQ 12,465-13,363 (bearish)
RUT 1 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 158-171 (bearish)
VIX 15.41-22.74 (bullish)
USD 105.56-106.87 (bullish)
EUR/USD 1.052-1.066 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 80.04-86.99 (bullish)
Nat Gas 3.12-3.74 (bullish)
Gold 1 (bullish)
AAPL 164-178 (bearish)
Bitcoin 32,897-35,494 (bullish)
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
