When 3Q GDP growth is reported Thursday, you’re bound to be bombarded by bullish headlines. Let this serve as your advance warning: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
“Someone asked me, ‘What do you mean 3Q GDP could be 3.12%, and you’re bearish?” Keith McCullough says in this clip from The Macro Show. “Yeah, that’s part of the reason why we’re bearish.”
“What you really hear me saying is GDP will be negative for the quarter we’re in (4Q 2023) and where we’re going (Q1-Q2 2024). That doesn’t change the fact Thursday’s report will be a catalyst for macro tourists and chart monkeys alike.”
The third quarter ended over three weeks ago. Those who confuse prior GDP growth for a healthy economy right now will pay the price.
“The Fed believes they have a 2-3% GDP economy, and the bond market will read Thursday’s number as hawkish,” McCullough adds. “Friday, if I were to pick a day, if the stock market were to find its final smackdown into the end of this month, wouldn’t that be interesting?”
Watch the full clip above.
