The last time Non-Farm Payroll numbers were revised lower seven months in a row was during the Great Financial Crisis. Following the July 2023 report, we’ve once again seen seven straight negative revisions … and counting.
“When you go back to prior times these revision trends have been consistently negative, what you find is the same dynamic was present,” Josh Steiner explains in this clip from The Macro Show. “You ended up with significant negative revisions during periods when economic downturns occurred. For that reason, it’s notable.”
From April 2022 to March 2023, total nonfarm employment was negatively revised by 306,000. Total private employment was negative 358,000.
“While the market at the moment doesn’t care about negative revisions, as a harbinger for negative forward dynamics economically, it’s been useful in the past,” Steiner adds.
This is just a small sample of the analysis shared during our 3Q Mid-Quarter Macro Themes Update on Thursday. For access to the full 180+ slide deck, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.