At the conclusion of today’s Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough spent five valuable minutes with subscribers conceptualizing the process/cycle relationship and where we are today. You can watch the full clip below. We’ve curated some of the more insightful key takeaways from Keith below as well.
- The peak of the cycle for Commodities, Equities, Credit and Crypto was Q2 of 2021. All of it peaked. So, from the peak of the cycle, Phase I of this bear market is January to June 2022. We nailed that. In the meantime, everyone wanted their bubble back.
- Currently, while you've had 7 stocks that have gone up (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Alphabet), the Russell 2000, at its lows, was down -30%. It's bounced to -24%. That's a broad definition of U.S. stocks and takes out the 7 stocks that have gone up. I'm not saying the 7 stocks that went up didn't happen. The AI narrative alongside Nvidia's recently reported numbers did happen. But that's not the economic cycle. That's innovation at a company and we'll see if that plays out over time.
- Meanwhile, the CRB Index of commodities didn't even bounce. It's right at the cycle lows. Same with U.S. Retailers and Regional Banks.
- When I look at everything, I have this sine curve of the peak emblazoned in my head. Always have, always will. There is no way to do Macro better than that.
- I have a long history of this because I'm the only one that called 2008 and the turn in 2009. When we made the bear call in 2008, you have Warren Buffett buying in October of 2008 and everyone yelling at me saying, 'Who are you?'
- This is your opportunity, where we're taking on adversity and getting the next wave of success.
