Hedgeye Cartoon of the Day: Ball and Chain
It is 2.16.23, and Active Short MPW is overvalued by approximately... whatever the current share price is. Believe us yet?
Ticker: COLD
Company Name: Active Short Americold Realty Trust
Subsector: Industrial / Logistics
Headline: Headline "beat," but we think underinvestment potentially "juices" AFFO while still deploying capital externally
- FY23 AFFO seen at $1.14 to $1.24/share ($1.19/share at the midpoint), above Hedgeye at $1.11/share and FactSet at $1.17/share, so ( + ) from a headline perspective.
- First observation: Lower cash G&A (~$0.03/share) and lower maintenance capex (~$0.06/share) vs. our current model bridges the gap between our ~$1.11/share FY23 AFFO estimate and and the midpoint of COLD's AFFO guidance (~$1.19/share). Meanwhile, our +5% CC SSNOI assumption is toward the low-end but still captured by management's +4% to +9% CC SSNOI range. While scaling back on G&A makes sense, we believe that scaling back on maintenance capex does not and is essentially "borrowing" cash flow from the future. On our numbers ~$85 million of maintenance capex implies ~10-11% of NOI which is more in-line with traditional large-box logistics. COLD, given the relative capital intensity of the model and age of the assets, should logically be well-north of that. Said another way, perhaps a "low quality" AFFO guide driven by under-investment in assets.
- Second observation: The SSNOI range is relatively wide at ~500bps, which we believe makes sense given past unforced errors on setting the range too narrow while simultaneously saying "we don't know what the year will look like." We think the bias is to the lower-end of the range.
- Third, while the funding and leverage situation is getting better, COLD still has a lot of development spend to fund and is starting another ~$100-200 million this year. We think they should be working down their leverage to sub-5x given the operating leverage in the model and the current cost of capital in the market, but it appears they may be able to skate by on credit line borrowings if needed.
- 4Q22 Results: AFFO of $0.29/share was +$0.02/share vs. Hedgeye and in-line vs. FactSet
- SSNOI: +$0.01/share
- Non-SSNOI: -$0.02/share
- TPM Services NOI: -$0.01/share
- Trans. Services NOI: +$0.02/share
- Current Taxes: +$0.01/share
- Interest Income + Rounding: +$0.01/share
Figure 1: COLD 4Q22 Variances
Source: Company Reports, Hedgeye Estimates
Prior Notes:
2.16.23 - STAG 4Q22 RESULTS | THINK THE FY23 GUIDE IS CONSERVATIVE | 2.16.23 (STAG)
2.16.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIX | PUTTING ALL THE MOVING PARTS TOGETHER, AGAIN | 2.16.23 (MPW)
2.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLVIII | COMMONSPIRIT DISCLOSED THE PURCHASE PRICE | 2.15.23 (MPW)
2.15.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH EARNINGS + MPW FOLLOW-UP | 2.15.23 (INVH, MPW)
2.15.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLVI | NO-NONSENSE TAKE ON STEWARD UTAH | 2.15.23 (MPW)
2.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLV | TOO MUCH V'CNCY IN BIRMINGHAM... SO BUILD A HQ | 2.13.23 (MPW)
2.12.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | NEW ACTIVE SHORT ST. JOE COMPANY | 2.12.23 | (JOE, IRT, DOC)
2.10.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATED CPT NUMBERS + REGAL LEASE NEGOTIATIONS | 2.10.23 (CPT, EPR, O)
2.9.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIV | ALL OF YOUR MODELS ARE BROKEN... | 2.9.23 (MPW)
2.9.23 - UHAL 3Q23 RESULTS | U-MISS'ED THE QUARTER | 2.9.23 (UHAL)
2.8.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ESS 4Q RESULTS + UHAL + POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 2.8.23 (ESS, IRT, UHAL)
2.7.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | STORAGE DEAL + UDR RESULTS + INVH CLASS ACTION | 2.7.23 (LSI, PSA, INVH, UDR)
2.5.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | WHO BLINKS FIRST? WE THINK SELLERS AS WELL | 2.5.23 | (CPT, EPR, MPW)
2.3.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 2.3.23
2.3.23 - CPT 4Q22 RESULTS | OUTRIGHT MISS ON THE QUARTER AND FY23 GUIDE | 2.3.23 (CPT)
2.3.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLIII | CHERNOBYL IS REBUILDING | 2.3.23 (MPW)
2.2.23 - MAA 4Q22 RESULTS | MIXED BAG, BUT WE LEAN SLIGHT "MISS" ON FY23 GUIDE VS. EXPECTATIONS | (MAA)
2.1.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLII FLASH | STEWARD'S PRESIDENT DEPARTING | 2.1.23 (MPW)
2.1.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SFR "PRICING POWER" NARRATIVE TO BE TESTED | 2.1.23 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
1.31.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH CFO DEPARTURE + ADDING AMH TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 1.31.23 (AMH, INVH)
1.29.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | "RENTER BILL OF RIGHTS" + STEWARD WTF | 1.29.23 | (APARTMENTS, SFR, MPW)
1.27.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.27.23
1.27.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XLI | REBUTTING THE SHASTA REBUTTAL | 1.27.23 (MPW)
1.26.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RADI SALE PROCESS CONCLUDING NEXT MONTH? | 1.26.23 (EPR/AMC, RADI, SLG)
1.22.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POTENTIAL FY23 BEATS & MISSES | 1.22.23 (AMH, CUBE, INVH, IRM, MPW, STAG)
1.20.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.20.23
1.20.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | OUR NOTES FROM THE PLD CALL | 1.20.23 (PLD)
1.20.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXX | PROSPECT CROZER MIGHT BE A TOTAL LOSS | 1.20.23 (MPW)
1.16.23 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | MULTIFAMILY UNDERWRITING + EPR + PIPELINE | 1.16.23 (EPR, APARTMENTS, MPW)
1.13.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXIX | PIPELINE HEALTH IS SIMPLY INCREDIBLE | 1.13.23 (MPW)
1.13.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.13.23
1.13.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | UPDATING SFR #s FOR HIGHER NC PROPERTY TAXES | 1.13.23 (AMH, INVH)
1.12.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 1.12.23 (AMT, HIW, MAA, NSA, SBAC, VTR)
1.10.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ADDING/REMOVING CUBE/SBAC TO ACTIVE SHORT LIST | 1.10.23 (CUBE, EXR, SBAC, WPC)
1.8.23 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | SD WHISTLEBLOWER CASE ACTIVITY + EPR FEEDBACK | 1.8.23 (INVH, EPR, MPW)
1.7.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOL. XXXVIII | ADD'L STEWARD VENDOR COMPLAINTS | 1.7.23 (MPW)
1.6.23 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 1.6.23
1.6.23 - EVENT REPLAY | NEW ACTIVE SHORT EPR PROPERTIES BLACK BOOK | 1.6.23 (EPR)
1.4.23 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXVII | ARTICLE ON "PONZI HOSPITALS" | 1.4.23 (MPW)
1.4.23 - FLASH | JUDGE DENIES INVH'S MTD | 1.4.23 (INVH)
1.3.23 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INITIAL THOUGHTS ON EPR | 1.3.23 (EPR)
1.1.23 - EVENT INVITE UPDATE | EPR PROPERTIES (EPR) BLACK BOOK | THURSDAY, 1/5 @ 12:30 PM ET
12.30.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.30.22
12.26.22 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | MPW "CHEAT SHEET" | 12.26.22 (EPR, MPW)
12.23.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.23.22
12.22.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXVI | STEWARD ABL EXTENSION + OUR QUESTIONS | 12.22.22 (MPW)
12.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 12.22.22 (EPR)
12.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 12.20.22 (CUBE, EXR, LSI, NSA, PSA, MPW)
12.18.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | TAKING AN "L" ON HR | 12.18.22 (HR, DOC)
12.16.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXV | GOAL POSTS TORN DOWN? | 12.16.22 (MPW)
12.16.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.16.22
12.15.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | FLORIDA REINSURANCE BILL + MPW/STEWARD WTF? | 12.15.22 (AMH, INVH, TCN, MPW)
12.14.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RENT CONTROL MEASURES + CEO CHANGE AT DLR | 12.14.22 (APARTMENTS, DLR)
12.14.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXIV | GOALPOSTS CONSTANTLY MOVING... | 12.14.22 (MPW)
12.12.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXIII | PIPELINE AUCTION CALLED OFF | 12.12.22 (MPW)
12.11.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | APARTMENT ITEMS + BREIT/SREIT + MPW MUSINGS | 12.11.22 (APARTMENTS, MPW)
12.9.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.9.22
12.9.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | INVH TAKES OUT 2018-1 SECURITIZATION | 12.9.22 (INVH)
12.6.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXXII | CIRCULATING THE CBS REPORT ON PROSPECT | 12.6.22 (MPW)
12.2.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 12.2.22
12.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | EQT "IN DISCUSSIONS" TO ACQUIRE RADI? | 12.1.22 (RADI)
11.29.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | HEALTHSCOPE PUSHED BACK + INDT BID | 11.29.22 (MPW, INDT)
11.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXX | PIPELINE BK UPDATE + STOCK IS NOT "CHEAP" | 11.28.22 (MPW)
11.27.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR + VAL HANDBOOK | 11.27.22 (DLR, EQIX, HR, DOC, SBAC, MPW)
11.22.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RESI NEWS ITEMS | 11.22.22
11.20.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UHAL NUMBERS + POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.20.22 (UHAL)
11.19.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIX | UPON FURTHER REVIEW... | 11.19.22 (MPW)
11.18.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.18.22
11.16.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NOTES FROM NAREIT DAY #1 | 11.16.22
11.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXVIII | IMPORTANT UPDATES FROM CMAX | 11.15.22 (MPW)
11.14.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXVII | HEALTHSCOPE PORTFOLIO SALE UPDATE | 11.14.22 (MPW)
11.13.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.13.22 (IRM, PGRE)
11.11.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.11.22
11.9.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | 3Q22 10-Q REVIEW | 11.9.22 (MPW)
11.9.22 - RADI 3Q22 RESULTS | 11.9.22
11.7.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | HEADING BACK TO CHERNOBYL... | 11.7.22 (MPW)
11.6.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE + SBAC REVIEW | 11.6.22 (ADC, O, NTST, SBAC)
11.5.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIV | OPERATIONS SUSPENDED AT DCMH | 11.5.22 (MPW)
11.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | SOME FOLLOW UP ITEMS, INCLUDING ON INVH | 11.4.22
11.4.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 11.4.22
11.3.22 - AMH 3Q22 RESULTS | MORE PROPERTY TAX MEDICINE | 11.3.22
11.3.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 11.3.22
11.2.22 - LSI 3Q22 RESULTS | LSI TO THE RESCUE? | 11.2.22 (LSI)
11.2.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | OCTOBER APARTMENT RENT TRACKER | 11.2.22
11.2.22 - EXR 3Q22 RESULTS | OOF | 11.2.22 (EXR)
11.2.22 - PSA 3Q22 RESULTS | 11.2.22 (PSA)
11.1.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXIII | REAL-TIME LOOK AT TEXARKANA | 11.1.22 (MPW)
11.1.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXII | PIPELINE UNSECURED CREDITOR OBJECTION | 11.1.22 (MPW)
10.31.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WE MADE A MISTAKE - ADJUSTING INVH NUMBERS | 10.31.22 (INVH)
10.31.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XXI | PIPELINE BK UPDATE | 10.31.22 (MPW)
10.30.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | UPDATED INVH MODEL ASSUMPTIONS | 10.30.22 (INVH, MPW)
10.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XX | BACK TO THAT DRY HOLE IN TX... | 10.28.22 (MPW)
10.28.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.28.22
10.28.22 - STAG 3Q22 RESULTS | 10.28.22 (STAG)
10.27.22 - INVH POST-3Q22 CALL THOUGHTS | 10.27.22 (INVH)
10.26.22 - MAA 3Q22 RESULTS | 10.27.22 (MAA)
10.26.22 - INVH 3Q22 RESULTS | PERHAPS THE WORST QTR IN RECENT MEMORY FOR A "BLUE CHIP" | 10.26.22 (INVH)
10.26.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIX | 3Q22 PREVIEW | 10.26.22 (MPW)
10.26.22 - EQR 3Q22 RESULTS | ANOTHER DECEL IN LEASING SPREADS | 10.26.22 (EQR)
10.25.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THOUGHTS ON NXRT'S 3Q22 | 10.25.22 (NXRT)
10.25.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XVIII | I'M THE CAPTAIN NOW... | (MPW)
10.25.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XVII | THAT'S SOME EXPENSIVE GRASS! | (MPW)
10.23.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | LOT'S TO READ ON SFR | 10.23.22 (VRE, AMH, INVH, TCN, MPW, SBAC)
10.21.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.21.22
10.21.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | THC NEGATIVE READ ACROSS FOR STEWARD ET AL | 10.21.22 (MPW)
10.20.22 - REITS CLIENT ALERT | 10.20.22 (MPW)
10.20.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 3Q22 EARNINGS NOTES | 10.20.22 (REXR, CCI)
10.19.22 - CLARIFICATION ON MAA PORTION OF PRIOR NOTE | 10.19.22 (MAA)
10.19.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | NOTES FROM PLD'S 3Q + SUDDEN MAA CHANGE | 10.19.22 (PLD, MAA, MPW)
10.17.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | ELS MISS + SFR CONSIDERATIONS AROUND QUARTERRA | 10.18.22 (ELS, AMH, INVH, TCN)
10.16.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | ADDING STAG TO ACTIVE LONG LIST | 10.16.22 (STAG, MPW)
10.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XV | RESPONDING TO CEO INTERVIEW | (MPW)
10.14.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.14.22
10.11.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 10.11.22 (CPT, INVH, MPW)
10.10.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIV | WE CALL YOUR BLUFF | (MPW)
10.10.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XIII | HEALTHSCOPE SALE WOULD LIKELY BE DILUTIVE | (MPW)
10.9.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | 10.9.22 (RE FUND FLOWS, MPW, VNO)
10.7.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.7.22
10.7.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XII | WHAT EXACTLY IS "CREF?" | (MPW)
10.6.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME XI | PROSPECT BUYING BACK CT HOSPITALS FROM MPW | (MPW)
10.5.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | FACEBOOK TERMINATING 225 PARK AVE LEASE | 10.5.22 (GATEWAY OFFICE, MAA)
10.4.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WHERE ARE INVH'S + SUI'S IAN UPDATES? | 10.4.22 (INVH, SUI, MPW)
10.3.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME X | TAKEAWAYS FROM INITIAL PIPELINE FILINGS | (MPW)
10.3.22 - FLASH | THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME IX | MPW's ~#12 TENANT FILES IN BK COURT | (MPW)
10.3.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ (ON MONDAY MORNING) | 10.3.22 (SBAC, WY)
10.1.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 10.1.22
9.30.22 - FLASH | (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VIII - DID STEWARD JUST BLOW UP? | (MPW)
9.30.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VII - NOTHING TO SAY? | (MPW)
9.29.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | DIVVY HOMES LAYOFFS / GENERAL EXTERNAL GROWTH SLOWDOW | 9.29.22 (AMH, INVH, TCN)
9.28.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | WEN STEWARD CREDIT FACILITY? | 9.28.22 (MPW, APARTMENTS)
9.28.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME VI - A FAMILY AFFAIR (MPW)
9.26.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | IAN MUCH MORE THREATENING | 9.26.22 (ELS, SUI, AMH, INVH)
9.25.22 - SUNDAY NIGHT REIT READ | TS IAN SWINGING WEST | 9.25.22 (RESIDENTIAL)
9.23.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME V - THE CURIOUS CASE OF DISAPPEARING WORK EXPERIENCE | 9.23.22
9.23.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.23.22
9.20.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME IV - SO... ABOUT THAT ~$335 MILLION LOAN | 9.20.22 (MPW)
9.18.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME III - I'M ON A BOAT! | 9.18.22 (MPW)
9.16.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK & POSITION MONITOR UPDATE | 9.16.22 (STOR)
9.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME 2 - WHATS A WHISTLEBLOWER TO DO? | 9.15.22 (MPW)
9.15.22 - THE (DIS)TRUST SERIES | VOLUME 1 - SEMC NLRB COMPLAINT | 9.15.22 (MPW)
9.14.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | 9.14.22 (CPT, MAA, NXRT)
9.13.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | RESIDENTIAL UPDATES FLOODING IN | 9.13.22 (AMH, INVH)
9.9.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.9.22
9.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED W/ WATSONVILLE? | 9.7.22 (MPW)
9.7.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | LOOK AT RENT CONTROL MEASURES ON THE NOV BALLOT | 9.7.22 (RESIDENTIAL)
9.5.22 - MONDAY NIGHT REIT READ | INVH ADDED TO S&P 500 + MORE MPW THOUGHTS | 9.5.22 (INVH, MPW)
9.2.22 - REITS WEEKLY VALUATION HANDBOOK | 9.2.22
9.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF PART II | PROBABILITY UP THAT COMPLAINT GOES MULTI-STATE | 9.1.22 (INVH)
9.1.22 - REITS DAILY BRIEF | POSITION MONITOR UPDATES | 9.1.22 (EQR, PGRE)
Please e-mail with any questions.
Rob Simone, CFA
Managing Director
Twitter: @HedgeyeREITs
