[FREE ALL ACCESS DAY] Early Look: "Our Moment vs. Retail #BagHODLers"

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“We become connected forever to these moments.”
-Pat Riley 

Crypto and “Retail Investor” BagHODLers are having another moment this morning. Together, so are we.

Coming out of the 1999-2000 Bubble, my boss (and one of my early mentors in the Hedge Fund business, Jon Dawson, would call these moments “learning opportunities”). The Mother of All Bubbles is certainly providing those. #HedgeyeNation is on the right side of them.

The aforementioned quote comes from a great leadership/learning book by NBA star Chris Bosh titled Letters To A Young Athlete.

One of the greatest coaches in American history (Pat Riley) wrote a letter:

“Dear Chris, there are decisive moments in your life that change everything for you and the people around you, moments when deep truths become crystal clear.” If there ever was a year where the truth about #Quad4 vs. Crypto was that, this is it.

Back to the Global Macro Grind…

“Keith, you gotta believe in something man.”
-Michael Saylor

That was a moment for me.

I’ll never forget having this Real Conversation @HedgeyeTV with a man who literally bought Hope.com and made it a Bitcoin website. If you watch the video, you’ll see the sharp contrast between two human beings, how they think, talk, etc. (video link here).

No, I’m not telling you I’m all that this morning (btw get over yourself if that’s what comes to mind when someone else has a moment). I’m telling you that I was just being me. I wasn’t mesmerized like some lemming with laser-eyes. I was all about my #process.

No matter what you did in Crypto (I was long it on this day of last year btw and sold it when my #VASP signaled an economic Quad Shift out of Peak Cycle #Quad2), today is another learning opportunity. What is your #process?

The Maestros (Saylor), The Rug (Raoul) Pal’s, and BankRun-Fried’s of the world are my anti-process.

Am I critical of them? You’re damn right I am. When it comes to snake oil salesmen having you risk your hard-earned capital, it’s my job to help you RISK MANAGE their bullshit. If I have to be the one who knocks, so be it.

How about Elon? As I’ve said, multiple times, he sits at the center of the concentric circles that made up The Mother of All Bubbles. And yes, I may be blocked by Twitter for saying so (again) today. That would be a great Life/Career Cycle moment for me too.

MANY of the “Retail Investors” (who are really just BagHODLers now) who own Crypto own TSLA.

And, as my Partner, Jay Van Sciver (who covers TSLA for us and remains short of it in TSLA terms) likes to say: “Elon is in the business of selling stories, a few models of cars, and selling stock”:

1. Elon just sold another $4 BILLION (19.5 MILLION shares) of stock right in Retail BagHODLer’s face
2. TSLA’s #BubbleCap stock has crashed -40% since SEPTEMBER alone
3. Since peaking in #Quad2 (NOV 5^th, 2021), TSLA will have crashed -55% if/when its gets to the low-end of my range

What’s my “price target” for all of these META Bubbles?

1. Lower…
2. Then higher (to lower-highs) and lower again… until
3. Floki and my Fractal Gods signal the end of Global #Quad4

When does the Global #Quad4 Recession end?

1. I don’t know… but
2. For now, we have it running through Q2 of 2023… so
3. I’ll keep you posted

Because, like calling out frauds, liars, and cheaters – that’s who I am and what I do.

Btw, back to Macro Markets, broadly, this morning:

1. China’s just “re-opened” (again) to the downside with stocks down for the 2^nd straight session
2. Oil broke @Hedgeye TREND support of $90.45/barrel (again) this morning (think Global Demand #slowing)
3. Dutch Stocks (EWN) lead European losers -1.6% this morning post the worst Consumer Confidence # EVER

Yep, ever is a moment too. It’s a really long time. And ever believes in forever alongside economic gravity.

Our 2021 (bullish) to 2022 (bearish) moment together has been decisive. No matter how these bears trade in 2-3 day spurts will not change the Full Investing Cycle @Hedgeye TREND we have experienced together.

Our moments together have changed everything for you and the people around you, moments when deep truths became crystal clear.

Immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal with @Hedgeye TREND signal in brackets

UST 10yr Yield 3.94-4.29% (bullish)
UST 2yr Yield 4.31-4.85% (bullish)
High Yield (HYG) 71.38-74.17 (bearish)          
SPX 3624-3874 (bearish)
NASDAQ 10,207-10,850 (bearish)
RUT 1708-1848 (bearish)
Tech (XLK) 117-127 (bearish)
Shanghai Comp 2870-3101 (bearish)
VIX 23.99-29.58 (bullish)
USD 109.31-113.45 (bullish)
GBP/USD 1.117-1.159 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 85.43-92.80 (bearish)
Gold 1616-1718 (bearish)
Copper 3.31-3.69 (bearish)
TSLA 185-212 (bearish)
Bitcoin 17,111-20,415 (bearish)

Best of luck out there today,
KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer