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Editor's Note: Hedgeye Health Policy analyst Emily Evans explores Health Policy in a post-Covid world. For more research and analysis, click to learn more about Health Policy Unplugged. |
Our Director of Research Daryl Jones asked (somewhat rhetorically) on Twitter yesterday who was getting the most recent release of the COVID-19 vaccine. Since we are working on our Black Book on PFE, I thought I would answer his question.
Put simply, if shots were votes, the candidate would have conceded by now.
PFE shipped a substantial number of doses in the weeks ending Sept. 10 and Sept 17 for which they are being paid $20-30/dose depending on which contract we are talking about.
This result is expected. This latest version of the COVID-19 vaccine (bivalent to address the original wild strain and some Omicron variant that has mostly left the scene) is not flying off the shelves. Administration continues its downward trend despite the recent approval, back to school in those places left that have mandates, and a sustained public interest in some parts of the U.S.
Meanwhile, the MRNA is reporting shortages of shots due to fill and finish problems at CTLT. The remain committed to delivering 70M doses by year end pursuant to their contract.
With the president declaring the pandemic "over," there will be little interest in Congress for funding more vaccine purchases which means the shift to commercialization should begin in 1Q sometime.
With the UK, Denmark and a handful of other countries settling into an "over 50" vaccine policy, the TAM continues to shrink.
