Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Communications analyst Andrew Freedman.
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When you model everything out, the 2H21/1H22 slowdown was quite obvious. The magnitude of the slowdown is much harder to forecast and will ultimately depend on how durable the acceleration drivers were in the first place. If the drivers are fleeting (e.g., stimulus), and/or are met with an offsetting headwind (e.g., IDFA/privacy), then magnitude can be quite large. Being data-dependent helps a lot here. 2-years of unprecedented fiscal stimulus really juiced personal consumption – and indirectly performance marketing (i.e., Facebook, Google, Snapchat and Pinterest). When you hear marketers say that stimulus check periods were “Black Friday level spending events” and “Q4 in Q2” – you pay attention. And surprise, surprise, the markets began to correct just as we hit the anniversary of those #stimmychecks getting sent out. Right on the screws with Keith and team’s #Quad4 risk rising call, and before some of the higher frequency data points began to soften. A coincidence? It might be, but I don’t think it is. This line of thinking and analysis has helped me navigate a very volatile operating environment with decent success. |
