In this clip from today’s edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough gives his take on Rate Hike Expectations, Powell's precarious predicament, and #Quad4 positioning ahead of the January FOMC Rate Decision.
“Fed Fund Futures are only down to 3.9 hikes; Powell has to get that down to 2, and then 1 and done. That’s according to me; I’m the one with the #Quad4 call, I’m the one who knocks.”
The market was pricing in 3.9 hikes ahead of Powell's presser, as of January 25th. Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in nearly 5 Hikes as of February 4, 2022.
“Sorry to break it to you guys out there who love the Fed, but Powell, whatever he says tomorrow, is not going to change the Rate of Change of U.S. Employment or Consumption Growth (which are currently slowing for the first time in a long time)...
So #Quad4 economically is #Quad4; if he just [walks back the pending policy mistake tomorrow] I’ll be pleasantly surprised. I don’t think he’s going to do it, but I’m still positioned for part of that.”