Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by our analyst Josh Steiner.

As we say often around here, risk happens slowly, then all at once. In fact, not only does it not care about sufficiently down the line, i.e. long-term risks, it barely seems to recognize short-term, in-your-face risks. It is important to be aware of the risks, to be proactively prepared for the risks, including the existential long-term risks, but not to get overly hung up on them in the short to intermediate term

Markets can be like trains, with considerable inertia. Sometimes the right move is to stick with the trade for the final portion of the move, even when it seems like the inflection will soon be upon you. That is the call we have been making to stick with Quad 2 until the signal(s) say otherwise.

CHART OF THE DAY: Our GIP Model [Growth + Inflation + Policy] - qioquad2