The Call @ Hedgeye | Thursday, February 23, 2023 [REPLAY]

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TICKERS DISCUSSED LONGS: WING, PRGO, STKL, VAC, ECPG SHORTS: BROS, OTLY, PEB, PK, ETSY, W, YETI, HELE, AMN, MPW, LCID, PLTR, LYV OTHERS:  DVA

BROADCAST SUMMARY

Restaurants: Howard Penney - 00:00:29

• Moving Down to Long Bench – Wingstop Inc. (WING): Taking off best idea long list and moving to long bench; blew out the quarter, beat by 19 cents, revenue up 45%; comps were 8.7% vs. Street estimate at 6%; Pod 1 and 2 story; one more quarter of easy comps; WING is now on the long bench
• Elevating to Best Idea Short – Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS): Disastrous quarter for the company; been a disaster since they came public; management team not ready for prime time; we think the stock may break the IPO price; burning through cash; management couldn’t answer a question on the conference call; BROS is now a best idea short

Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi – 00:06:02

• Long –Perrigo Company plc (PRGO): According to the Private Label Manufacturers Association store brand sales grew 11.3% to $228.6B in 2022, a new record; the inflationary environment was behind the growth with higher prices and more consumers trading down; Perrigo is the largest manufacturer of OTC store label products; PRGO remains a long
• Plant-Based Milk: Yesterday, the FDA announced draft recommendations for the naming of plant-based foods; the draft guidance recommends voluntary nutrient statements for the labeling of some plant-based milk alternatives; the label would include a comparison to dairy milk, for example, the label could say, “Contains lower amounts of Vitamin D and calcium than milk”; SunOpta Inc. (STKL) remains a long & Oatly Group AB (OTLY) remains on the short bench

Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Todd Jordan – 00:11:38

• Long – Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC): Reported last night; slight miss for the quarter, hurricanes had a pretty big impact; more exposure to Florida; only concern was rental business missed on the top line; VAC remains a long
• Hotel REITs: Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB) barely down yesterday after horrendous guidance; Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (PK) up after not-so-great guidance; tough leisure comps starting in April; struggling business transient business; we are also in a Quad 4 environment; we’d look for an opportunity to re-short PEB & PK, both remain shorts

Retail: Jeremy McLean - 00:15:53

• Short – Etsy Inc. (ETSY): Good headline, management has been setting expectations appropriately but there are a lot of holes in the print; total sales slowed from +1% last quarter to -1% in constant currency; habitual buyers were down again this quarter; losing core customer; margins are down YoY; guiding to another slowdown in Q1; ETSY remains a short
• Short – Wayfair Inc. (W): In-line print; cash balance down YoY; what matters is what company says on the call around guidance; we’ve seen slowing trends for a lot of ecommerce companies in 2023; consumer and category will get worse; W remains a short
• Short Bench – YETI Holdings Inc. (YETI): Weak quarter with big guide down; product recall issues; guiding margins down 300 basis points; Yeti talking about investing in their brand; meanwhile, HELE is talking about peak margins and remaining at this level; YETI remains on the short bench & Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) remains a short

Healthcare: Tom Tobin – 00:25:28

• Short – AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN): CCRN reported, very consistent with what AMN said but worse on the margin; business is slowing; poor guidance; marginal provider of marginal piece of demand; AMN remains a short

Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans – 00:30:19

• DaVita Inc. (DVA): Reported last night; dialysis centers are the coal mine of healthcare; DVA was the last to get relief on the labor front; EPS beat and was above the Street but revenue was light; still facing excess mortality; guiding for negative volume growth

Macro, Housing & Financials: Drago Malesevic  - 00:35:45

• Long Bench – Encore Capital Group (ECPG): Reported last night; printed $3.11 loss per share in Q4; missed expectations for a $1.47; lower than expected revenue; downward revision in company’s expected collections on its back books; did increase their purchases of charged off paper; we will continue to watch for an entry point, timing is important; ECPG remains on the long bench

REITs: Rob Simone – 00:41:20

• Short – Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW): Reported earnings; asset schedule is muddied; guiding below the Street for 2023; still going through the numbers; MPW remains a short

Industrials: Jay Van Sciver – 00:45:11

• Short – Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID): Lucid reported earnings; cash burn up quite a bit; monthly order rate continued to slip; commented on buyout rumor from Saudis; very improbable; LCID remains a short
• Mid-Quarter Update: Hosting our 1Q23 Mid-Quarter Themes Update on Thursday @ 2pm ET

Technology: Yosef Vaitsblit - 00:48:46

• Moving Down to Short Bench – Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): While Palantir continues to spray investors with gobs of un-truth, it is the first time in a long time that we have some somewhat nice things to say; if we remove the bad comps from the infamous SPAC investments, underlying Palantir organic growth is sustaining 20%+, and following the seesaw of profits and cash flows resulting from the IT Services to Software shift (and subsequent comp of that shift), the model is now inflecting towards some normative state which is an improvement against the last 12 months; PLTR is now on the short bench

Communications: Andrew Freedman – 00:54:00

• Short – Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV): Our trackers continue to show a slowdown in music related and total events; growth in total events turned negative and continue to slow; tracking # of North America events where LYV is listed as a sponsor; North America total events declined in Q4; 3% fewer music related events on sale compared to this time last year; reports after the close today; LYV remains a short

Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur – 00:57:27

• Social Media: Twitter and Google appear to be in pretty good shape coming out of two days of arguments at the Supreme Court; dodged some bullets; Court reluctant to limit online platform liability shield

Macro Policy: JT Taylor – 01:00:57  

• Student Loans: Lawsuit heading to the Supreme Court; filed by 6 Republican AGs; looking at half a trillion dollars in potential student loan forgiveness; will have an impact on federal receipts

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