02/29/24 07:32 AM EST

The Call @ Hedgeye | Thursday, February 29, 2024 [REPLAY]

TICKERS DISCUSSED

LONGS: GTBIF, TCNNF, CELH, MNST, STKL, DKNG, NSA

SHORTS: FIGS, BIRK, FND, BBY, GOLF, PGNY, COF, DFS, SYF, AXP, AMC

NEUTRAL: XBI, SNOW

Restaurants & Cannabis: Howard Penney - 00:00:55

Long - Green Thumb Industries Inc. (GTBIF): Green Thumb beat numbers handily; revenues ahead of consensus; company added to their share repurchase program; they need capital if they are going to grow in the future; GTBIF remains a long
Long - Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (TCNNF): Reported a great quarter; beat on revenue; change from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3 will lead to a significant improvement in cash flow; TCNNF remains a long

Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi - 00:05:47

Long - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH): Beat by a penny; stock is down 2%; results were very good; revenue up 95%; 97% growth in North America; Celsius was the #1 share gainer in the U.S. retail channel in 2023; CELH remains a long
Long - Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST): Monster is committed to raising price; Red Bull has already raised prices; MNST remains a long
Long - SunOpta Inc. (STKL): SunOpta reported Q4 EPS of $.05 vs. the consensus estimate of $.02; revenue grew 13.7% with volume/mix growth of 14.7% and price down by 1%; beverages and broth revenue grew 19%; the growth was driven by oat milk and creamers, 330-ml protein shakes, teas, and fruit snacks; we still think shares can double from here; STKL remains a long

Sports Betting: Handle growth accelerated in January; still have easy comps until we get into the October period; promos coming down, hold % normalizing; creates a good environment for the operators to drive accelerating net revenue growth; Q1 is tracking better than where DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) had guided; DKNG remains a long

Short - FIGS, Inc. (FIGS): Being considered the Lululemon for medical apparel; beat the quarter by 3 pennies but guided down 2024 by a lot; fired their CFO; stock is trading down 20% right now; FIGS remains a short
Short - Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK): Company hit the quarter; they should’ve blown away the quarter; did not change guidance but said they are “more confident” they are going to hit their guidance for 2024; we are waiting to bring this higher on our best idea short list; we think Pod 1 is going to slow in the back half of this year; BIRK remains a short
Short - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND): Company had a bunch of insider sales hit the tape including the CFO; FND remains a short
Short - Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): Headline was an EPS beat with revenue a little ahead; slight rate of change improvement; mid-points on EPS and comp guidance are below consensus; trying to offset some of these TAIL margin risks; there is risk on the credit side; BBY remains a short
Short - Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF): The short has been going against us; this quarter was not good; headline miss on net income and revenue; looking at rising inventories; GOLF remains a short

Health Care: Tom Tobin - 00:24:19

Short Bench - Progyny, Inc. (PGNY): Had a bad utilization quarter; we have a tracker for providers; this number ticked down significantly to start the year; Quad Factor score is very strong; the company is talking about buying back shares which is a red flag in our view; PGNY remains on the short bench

Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans - 00:29:47

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI): XBI made its return to $100 - on a short squeeze; reminder that NIH funding has a lot of influence over the sector; funding of biotechnology research ramped significantly in response to the 21st Century Cures Act and the Cancer Moonshot program between 2014 and 2018; notwithstanding the recent performance of the biotech sector and small cap generally, government funding at the rates seen between 2014 and 2018 are not poised to return

Consumer Credit: We are hosting a Black Book this afternoon at 12:30pm ET on the state and outlook for consumer credit featuring best idea shorts Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Synchrony Financial (SYF) & American Express Company (AXP)

REITs: Rob Simone - 00:38:47

Long - National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA): Reported last night; it was a mixed bag; they are recycling capital and paying down some debt; high leverage has always been a consideration here; they are buying back stock; better use of this capital would be to reduce leverage; stock is reacting positively to the news; NSA remains a long

Communications & Software: Andrew Freedman - 00:44:20

Short - AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC): Reported last night; negative cash flow; dilution from equity raises were a big reason why the stock was down 84% last year; EBITDA was down in 2023 and likely to be worse in 2024; we are sticking with the short here; AMC remains a short
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW): Quarter was fine, revenue and operating income came in ahead of consensus; big problem was on the guide; huge miss compared to expectations; more difficult comps in the back half of the year; AI product launches could be a source of upside but still not a good look for the core business

Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur - 00:56:20

Google: We are pending a decision in federal court related to the challenge that Google has a search monopoly and how it is the default search engine on Apple devices

Macro Policy: JT Taylor - 00:58:28

Congress: 12 appropriations bills; Speaker Johnson and the House now agreed to 6 of these 12; will get an extension today until next Friday; likely that 6 of these 12 will pass

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