NewsWire: 3/24/22
- With births falling steadily in Thailand, the government is introducing new baby-boost policies. Thailand, while less developed than the likes of Taiwan or South Korea, has become yet another Southeast Asian nation worrying about declining fertility. (Reuters)
- NH: We have written numerous NewsWires on low fertility countries trying to boost births. Now Thailand is getting in on the action.
- The government plans to open fertility centers in each of its 76 provinces. Such centers are currently limited to major cities. The Health Ministry also plans to recruit celebrities and social media influencers to promote the joys of family life.
- In the 1960s, Thailand had a very high total fertility rate (TFR), just above 6.0. The Thai government responded by pouring resources into family planning initiatives. A famous 1972 campaign slogan read, "more babies, more poverty." These programs were successful--just as they were in South Korea. Today, Thailand's TFR is around 1.5.
- Like many East Asian countries, Thailand initially benefited from a "demographic dividend." Falling births meant the country could spend less on children and put more resources towards growing the economy. That's precisely why so many Southeast Asian governments back then eagerly promoted a lower birth rate.
- But all these governments now realize this benefit came with a long-term cost. Plummeting fertility--several decades after it begins--necessarily triggers rapid aging and a rise in the relative number of dependent seniors. Back in 1980, in Thailand, there were 8 seniors age 65+ for every 100 working-age people (20 to 64). Today, there are 20. By 2035, there will be 40. And by 2050, there will be 55.
- Yikes! That means that, according to the UN's projection, Thailand's old-age dependency ratio will nearly triple between now and 2050.
- The OECD estimates that the Thai government today spends only 2.5% of GDP on public pensions. But this share will grow faster as the population ages. Not to mention, family support systems are drastically weakening. Which means the government will need to pick up the slack even further.
- That's why the Thai government is now promoting more kids. By the early 2040s, it figures that new workers coming on stream would help alleviate the extra fiscal burden weighing on its future.
- Yet will its new pronatalist policies work? Many researchers are skeptical and point out that they don't address the biggest obstacles to higher fertility. The problem is not that young people aren't interested in family life. (Which may be more a genuine issue in Japan or South Korea.) Instead, young Thais complain about their economy and their political future.
- Many say they can't afford to start a family. Since the GFC, household debt in Thailand has surged; it has now reached 90% of GDP. Political instability also may be deterring many young people from having children. Over the last two years, there have been mass youth protests against the parliament and the monarchy. The government has responded with force: jailing dissenters and censoring the media.
- If these pronatalist policies don’t work, I wouldn’t be surprised if Thailand eventually turns to cash incentives.
- But all this effort may amount to a mere re-arranging of the proverbial deck chairs. If the government doesn't accede to some major constitutional reforms, it could disappear entirely--to be replaced by a new regime. If the reconstituted Thai government managed to crack open King Maha Vajiralongkorn's $30B net worth (by all accounts, he's the richest monarch in the world), that alone could finance, indefinitely, a $2,000 cash payment for every new Thai baby.
| To view and search all NewsWires, reports, videos, and podcasts, visit Demography World. For help making full use of our archives, see this short tutorial. |
