Trendspotting: Americans Are Shifting to the Right

NewsWire: 2/23/22

• U.S. political party identification shifted greatly during 2021. Democrats started the year with a historically large advantage over Republicans, but lost more than all of it by the end of the year as GOP identification climbed. (Gallup)
  
• NH: In Q1 2021, 49% of Americans identified as Democrats, and 40% identified as Republicans. But now the tide has turned. In Q4, more people identified as Republicans (47%) than Democrats (42%). In only four quarters since 1991, have Republicans held a lead of 5 or more percentage points.
• Let me further quote from the Gallup release: "Both the 9 point Democratic advantage in Q1 and the 5 point Republican edge in Q4 are among the largest Gallup has measured."

• This shift towards the right has been most pronounced among moderates. From Q1 to Q4, the share who considers themselves Democrat-leaning independents and Republican-leaning independents changed more than the share who considers themselves full-blown Dems or Reps. More than ever before, the middle is where most of the action is.

• So why are people shifting to the GOP? There is a lot of displeasure with the government, and the Biden administration is taking the heat. On the homefront, the rate of inflation is the highest since 1982. Covid-19 restrictions remain controversial. Illegal border crossings have skyrocketed. (See “Surge at the Border: Biden's First Challenge?”) Violent crime is on the rise. (See “FBI Releases Official 2020 Crime Report.”) And, as last fall's election season demonstrated, many parents are upset by what is taught in the schools. In global affairs, the chaotic pullout from Afghanistan made America look both weak and incompetent. And right now Russia is testing Biden’s resolve. 
• All in all, this is good news for the GOP going into the fall midterms. If Democrats want to hold onto Congress, they need a lot of damage control in the coming months.