While we had the CPI "wrong" today (I.e. I'm losing money so it's dead wrong), the Government lied about the Health Insurance component of the print (which they had DOWN -34% inflation y/y ... and that was -18bps to CPI - and we didn't have that in our Nowcast!)...

Coaching Notes:

1. I'm not going to NOT call out Goverment lies, ever

2. I'm also not going to NOT make the #NextPlay, regardless of winning or losing on any given day. I've played almost 6,000 games in The League (market days) and know what me losing today means for the future (nothing)

3. Even if you believe the government's initial "jobs gains and inflation down" reports, you'd be selling Junk Bonds (JNK) on this pending (to be reported) recession... 

Remember, that's the real reason why Bond Yields are breaking down,


  • trade
  • trend
  • tail
Average Cost Basis
Close Price
Realized Return