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"The Morning Shift" covers the waterfront of U.S. and global economic data within the context of our global macro outlook.
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New Home Sales Slow -5.6% M/M In October On The Back of High Rates. China Industrial Profits Slow To +2.7% Y/Y From +11.9% In The Prior Month
- Top Macro ETFs By Size Rank: BUXX, TFLO, TBIL, SHY, EWM, GLD, BNDD, MTBA, BITO, AAAU, SMIN, NLR, INDA, AMLP, KBWP, BTAL, IAK, CANE, URNM, UUP, EWY, EZA, GXG, ETHE
- Commentary from Keith: “In the PA today, bought 100bps EWM and BUXX. Bought 50bps BITO, ETHE. Sold 50bps SHY, GLD, CANE. Added EWY at my min.”
- U.S. New Homes Sales for October came in at +679K, which was down from +719K in September and below estimates of +721K
- This is a -5.6% M/M decline, but still up +17.7% Y/Y
- This report shouldn’t be a total surprise as mortgage rates peaked in October
- The median new home sales prices fell to $409K, the lowest level since August 2021
- Sharp rate of change slowdown in China Industrial Profits to +2.7% Y/Y for October
- This compares to +11.9% Y/Y in September and +17.2% in August
- This is some combination of weak internal demand and declining commodity prices, but a notable slowdown
- ECB President Lagarde spoke to European Parliament this morning saying “not time to start declaring victory on inflation”
- Just something to watch, but there is some stress showing up in China money markets into month end . . . 7D repos reached +2.8% and non-bank financials were up to +3.5%
- Some key economic data releases to watch this week:
- Tuesday – France and German Consumer Confidence; U.S. Consumer Confidence (expectations: 101)
- Wednesday – Inflation data for November from Italy, Belgium, and Germany; Japan Retail Sales and Industrial Production
- Thursday – China November Manufacturing and Services PMI (expectations: 49.7 and 51.1, respectively); German Retail Sales; Eurozone Flash CPI (expectations: +2.7%); U.S. Pending Home Sales
- From the U.S. on Thursday: October Personal Spending, Income, and PCE (expectations: all are at +0.2% M/M)
