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TICKERS DISCUSSED LONGS: BRBR, RH, FDX, HUBS, MSFT SHORTS: PGNY NEUTRAL: CI, AAPL |
broadcast summary
Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi - 00:03:10
- Long – BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR): The RTD and protein powder category continues to be one of the strongest CPG categories since the pandemic. According to Circana, through the 12 months ending in August, protein sales grew 12%, totaling more than $10B in sales. The largest growth came from BellRing Brands’ Premier Protein and Coca-Cola’s fairlife. Other brands, like OWYN, trail significantly behind the leaders’ growth in sales. Expanded capacity through BellRing’s co-manufacturing additions and Coca-Cola’s $650M fairlife plant under construction will be game changers. BRBR remains a long.
Retail: Jeremy McLean - 00:04:27
- Long – RH (RH): P&L inflection is clear. This is what we had been waiting for. Will get more home turnover, which will be good for underlying demand. RH remains a long.
Health Care: Tom Tobin - 00:12:57
- Short Bench – Progyny, Inc. (PGNY): Lost their largest client, representing 12% of their membership and 12% of their sales and EBITDA. This is a headwind. This has been a factor short. Down 20% pre-market. PGNY remains on the short bench.
Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans - 00:20:59
- Cigna Group (CI): Cigna filed a lawsuit against the FTC over a drug-price report.
Macro, Housing, Digital Assets & Financials: Josh Steiner - 00:25:37
- Housing (Q4 Themes): We are hosting our 4Q24 U.S. Housing Themes Call today at 12:30pm ET.
- Macro (Rates): Expectations for the Fed to cut 100 this year; bond market is saying it’s going to be more like 120. The polymarket on the White House swung significantly in the wake of this Fed rate cut. Had been a 2-point spread between the candidates in favor of Harris, and there is now a 5-point spread in favor of Harris.
Industrials & Materials: Jack Cromwell - 00:42:42
- Long – FedEx Corporation (FDX): FDX reports this afternoon. We are expecting another good quarter for air cargo. Will hopefully get an update on the strategic review of their freight segment. FDX remains a long.
Software: Nick Balch - 00:47:30
- Long – HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS): Hosted their investor day yesterday. A 2-hour keynote on everything they are doing in AI. Company is prioritizing customer value over immediate monetization. Management mentioned we may see a consumption-based model in terms of AI usage, but this would be further down the line. The sales and marketing segment should help margins. HUBS remains a long.
Global Technology & Software: Felix Wang - 00:54:07
- Long Bench – Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Microsoft is grouping other segments into and out of Azure, making Azure growth look a bit better. MSFT is more of a safety play right now in software. MSFT remains on the long bench.
Telecom-Media Policy: Paul Glenchur - 00:57:28
- Apple, Inc. (AAPL): The EU is ordering Apple to open their iOS mobile operating system to allow rival technologies to gain access to the iPhone market and user base. This is something we don’t mandate here in the U.S. currently. Very different legal action towards big tech companies in Europe compared to the U.S.
Macro Policy: JT Taylor - 01:02:34
- Congress: Johnson’s CR plan went down last night. Going to regroup today. We sense that Johnson is losing some support on Capitol Hill. Another CR will be introduced. Schumer is coming up with his own legislative vehicle.
