TAP: Adding Molson Coors to Investing Ideas (Short Side)

02/24/21 10:33AM EST

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough is adding Molson Coors (TAP) to the short side of Investing Ideas. Below is a brief note.

Consumables analysts Howard Penney and Daniel Biolsi love Cannabis (MSOS), but they have no love for Canadian Beers (TAP) here...

This is also a Sector Style (Staples, XLP) that you should be short alongside Treasuries (TLT) and Gold (GLD) in #Quad2. Here's an update from their Consumables Pro product (#subscribe) on the name:

European restrictions lead to Q4 miss (TAP)

Molson Coors reported Q4 EPS of $.40, missing consensus expectations of $.77 by a wide margin. Constant currency sales decreased 8.3%, worsening from -3.6% in Q3. Management said, “Europe alone accounts for 92% of our fourth quarter topline [miss] to plan.” Government restrictions in Europe and the U.K., in particular, caused the shortfall. Europe accounts for 15% of revenue but contributed 61% of the revenue decline for the year and 92% for the quarter. North American sales decreased 0.8%, even with Q3, while volumes declined 6.9%. The U.S. grew 1.9%, with volumes down 6.2% compared to shipment declines of 2.3%. In Europe, revenue decreased 39.4% in constant currencies worsening from -15.3% in Q3. EBITDA of $375M missed consensus expectations of $481M.

Sell the bounce to lower-highs,

KM

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