hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) VIX – It’s hard to believe that PMs can be forced to chase the “upside” in fear of missing a move at the beginning of every month (for the past 4 months) but believe it. Front month VIX = 20.47 with immediate-term upside to 34-36 and implied volatility has been smashed to the lows we saw in early DEC (-40% DISCOUNT to 30-day realized); sell SPY, XLI, XRT.
2) GERMANY – Bear market bounces are the biggest short-term rallies you’ll find. In the face of rancid rate of change economic data (German Retail Sales #slowing to +1.1% y/y and Industrial Production #slowing to -4.7% y/y), the DAX is +1.1% this morning and signaling immediate-term TRADE #overbought within its Bearish @Hedgeye TREND.
3) UST 2YR – Finally a real bounce in bond yields that Treasury Bulls (we’re still in the minority) can buy into. The UST 2YR = 2.59% with the top-end of the risk range = 2.63%; this position (new for us since mid OCT) carries well and the low-end of the range is currently 2.39%; we'd short a lot of Junk (JNK) Credit against that here.
New Podcast Episode!
"In The Arena" Episode 3 - Brian McGough
In this installment of "In The Arena," host Daryl Jones is joined by veteran Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. Brian was one of the first members of the Hedgeye team and instrumental in bringing the vision of Hedgeye to fruition.
In this interview, Brian discusses the unconventional path that led him to Wall Street, working on both the buy side and the sell side, the early days of Hedgeye and how he identifies his favorite long and short ideas.
CLICK HERE for more.