Happy friday, you can watch today's show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Macro analyst Ben Ryan live HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
Hedgeye's Top 3 Things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) VIX - Front month VIX continues to signal that the volatility of volatility can indeed A) go lower and B) stay lower (if that signal changes, we’ll be the 1st to let you know, we hope)… at a 9.58 close the VIX is tracking toward all-time lows (low-end of our risk range = 8.92 for now) with an implied volatility DISCOUNT of -7% vs. 30-day realized.
2) DRAGHI - We thought Draghi was relatively dovish yesterday (so did the bond market), but the EUR/USD didn’t as it punched right back up to the top-end of our $1.13-1.16 risk range. We’ve had this one wrong this week but it’s not a call on the week, it’s a call that in the next 3-6 months Draghi falls on the sword of having the wrong growth and inflation forecasts.
3) Copper - If you’re looking for disconfirming evidence of either Reflation’s Rollover or #ChinaSlowing, this is the short-term chart for you; Copper +1.0% to the top-end of its $2.63-2.75 risk range this morning with the top-end of the range being a lower-high vs. the $2.80 ish level Copper failed at in FEB at Reflation’s Peak.
Chart of the Day
Price, Volume, volatility: key market color
