These charts from today's Early Look by Ryan Ricci compare CFTC commercial and non-commercial positioning in Bitcoin.
It's safe to say non-commercial holders have not been able to risk manage their positions very well, wearing an 83% drawdown and exiting after a 27% gain.
Commercial holders seem to be timing the peaks and troughs quite well. They were net short from December 7, 2021, to June 28, 2022, avoiding a 63% drawdown. These holders were net long from October 31, 2023, until today. That’s from 34,439 to 66,648, a 94% uptick.
Definition of Commercial vs. Non-Commercial
Commercial - If a trader uses futures contracts for hedging as defined in CFTC's regulations (1.3(z).
Non-Commercial - Someone who has no business activities related to a particular commodity in which they might have a position in the futures or options markets.
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