CHART OF THE DAY: Not the First Time the Government's Goosed Inflation Numbers

01/29/24 08:20AM EST

This chart from today's Early Look by Keith McCullough shows the spread between the GDP Deflator number and U.S. CPI quarterly averages. 

In the most recent report, the U.S. government understates the GDP Deflator by almost 200 basis points to goose headline GDP, eh!

Embedded in the headline +3.1% Y/Y US GDP report was a +2.6% plug for inflation. Headline CPI was +3.4% Y/Y in December (+3.24% Y/Y for 4Q) while Core CPI was +3.99% Y/Y in 4Q = 54% higher than the implicit GDP Deflator. And, of course, to report “Real” GDP, you subtract the Deflator from nominal GDP.

Nothing to see here.

CHART OF THE DAY: Not the First Time the Government's Goosed Inflation Numbers - COTD1

HELPFUL LINKS:

Join New Subscriber Orientation

New Conference: Hedgeye Live 2024 May 2-5

Hedgeye University | Become a Better Investor

Hedgeye Education Center | Learn More About Hedgeye

Learn About Our New Sectors: Global Technology Pro and Software Pro

CHART OF THE DAY: Not the First Time the Government's Goosed Inflation Numbers - ciOQ ob4

CHART OF THE DAY: Not the First Time the Government's Goosed Inflation Numbers - 4xOP6iia

CHART OF THE DAY: Not the First Time the Government's Goosed Inflation Numbers - Optionsbanner

CHART OF THE DAY: Not the First Time the Government's Goosed Inflation Numbers - Lacallebanner

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.