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PREMIUM INSIGHT

Today's Daily Trading Ranges

Today's Daily Trading Ranges - z 100

This is a complimentary look at today's Daily Trading Ranges -- 20 immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.


6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - cartoon book image

 

As stock market bears puff out their chest on this week's modest pullback, here are a few cartoons with brief commentary reviewing the last six weeks of truly bullish economic data (outside the bearish news in the truly troubled oil patch).

 

 

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1. Trumpcare vs. Obamacare

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - 03.13.2017 Obamacare cartoon

 

House Republicans said a Thursday meeting with President Trump hadn't yet resulted in a deal on legislation to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. We think the dire warnings that this alone should puncture the stock market rally are overdone.

 

2. Fracking Americans!

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - 03.22.2017 OPEC fracking cartoon

 

In the past month, oil prices are down, -12.8%. Why? U.S. oil production has been ramping up just as OPEC has been trying to cut production. "US producers have added 102 new oil rigs since OPEC implemented oil production cuts," writes Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle. "That's up 14 operating rigs on the week to 631. This is versus just 387 rigs a year ago."

 

3. Not Magic Beans...

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - 03.16.2017 magic beans

 

The U.S. economy is growing, accelerating alongside corporate earnings and inflation. Speaking of data, as we wrote recently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales are at or near five year highs.

4. Consumer Confidence

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - 03.02.2017 consumer confidence 

 

Talk about a growth spurt! U.S. consumer confidence hit a 15-year high earlier this week as post-Election Day euphoria grips the country.

5. Poo Bear

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - 03.07  X

 

Even with this week's modest "correction," stock market bears are really stepping in it so far in 2017. This week stock indices are down between -0.6% and -1.5% but up as much as +7% year-to-date.

6. Not So Volatile

6 Cartoons That Sum Up the Last Six Weeks In Markets - volatility cartoon 01.27.2017

 

Even with this week's spike, stock market volatility has been hovering near all-time lows. 

 

 

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Poll of the Day: Whose Market Calls Do You Trust Most?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

Poll of the Day: Whose Market Calls Do You Trust Most? - poll manitee image

 

 

 


Realogy: Our Housing Team's Inaugural Best Idea Stock Call

Realogy: Our Housing Team's Inaugural Best Idea Stock Call - 03.03.2017 big bull cartoon

 

Our Housing Team – led by Josh Steiner and Christian Drake –  hosted a deep dive institutional call earlier today on their Best Idea long Realogy (RLGY).

 

Email sales@hedgeye.com for more information.

KEY DISCUSSION POINTS

  • Building (Positive) Pressure: There is growing potential energy in the Housing market on both the new and existing home fronts. Look no further than the recent spate of data for signs of transitioning towards either good or less bad:  Building Materials and Furniture Sales were the strongest components of this morning’s Retail Sales data for February.  Further, Mortgage Purchase Applications are reflecting a notable pickup in the early March data alongside broader improvement in domestic growth trends.  If rates have already priced in the March increase and multiple hikes in 2017 and if the primary constraint to volume growth in both the new and existing markets is supply based, we can expect the release valve to manifest in the form of higher HPI in the intermediate term, which should ultimately catalyze relief on the inventory side and enable higher volume flow-through rates over the longer term.
  • High End Housing Rebound? The High-End segment has been battered over the past few years alongside muted financial asset price inflation and a general slowdown in high-ticket discretionary consumption, but luxury spending trends are showing signs of life of late. This bodes well for Realogy, especially its NRT segment which includes the high end brands Corcoran and Sotheby’s, and is concentrated in more affluent areas. 
  • Positive Operating Leverage & Cheap Valuation: Realogy is cheap, and while cheap can get cheaper is our oft-touted maxim here at Hedgeye, the potential for earnings to beat expectations over the next two years is great while the potential for them to miss is small. We think the multiple to this earnings vs expectations setup asymmetry is reflexive, i.e. as earnings expectations move higher the multiple will expand. This has been the case on the way down and we think it'll be the case on the way up. 

ABOUT HEDGEYE

Hedgeye Risk Management is a leading independent provider of real-time investment research. Focused exclusively on generating and delivering investment ideas, the firm combines quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing.

 

The Hedgeye team features some of the world's most regarded research analysts - united around a vision of independent, uncompromised real-time investment research as a service.


Poll Of The Day: Which BEST Describes The US Economy?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

Poll Of The Day: Which BEST Describes The US Economy? - bull bear

 


Poll Of The Day: What's The LIKELIEST Next Stop For Oil Prices?

Poll Of The Day: What's The LIKELIEST Next Stop For Oil Prices? - oil prices question2

 


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