Do You Doubt U.S. Growth? Business Confidence Spikes To 2004 Levels

Do You Doubt U.S. Growth? Business Confidence Spikes To 2004 Levels - bus conf

Small Business Confidence Spikes To Highest Reading Since 2004

#Trump #SmallBusiness #Confidence

 

The election of Donald Trump has everyone from consumers, homebuilders and small businesses elated. Across each of these categories, confidence readings are through the roof. Apparently, the prospect of lower taxes and the removal of bureaucratic red tape has everyone excited.

 

Who'd have thought?

 

The electricity is palpable. In case there was any remaining doubt, the latest reading of the NFIB's Small Business Confidence index smashed Wall Street's tempered expectations.

 

The index yesterday showed a spike to 105.8, a level not seen since 2004, and a massive ramp from November's print of 98.4. "Warm up your neck before trying to look straight up at the DEC Small Business Confidence Print!," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote yesterday.

 

Just look at the Chart of the Day below (maybe consider stretching those sternocleidomastoid and trapezius muscles before you take a peek).

 

Do You Doubt U.S. Growth? Business Confidence Spikes To 2004 Levels - 01.11.17 EL Chart vF

The U.S. Economy is Accelerating: Stock Outlook

#TrumpTrade #Economy #GrowthAccelerating

 

On yesterday's small business exuberance, the Nasdaq hit it's third day of all-time closing highs in a row. It's crystal clear why. Since November, U.S. economic data has brightened significantly. Whether you're looking at Durable Goods, Retail Sales, ISM (Manufacturing or Services indexes), or Industrial Production, all have been improving over these last few months.

 

That's been a boon for the U.S. economy. The third quarter GDP report of 2016 stopped slowing, rising to 1.7% year-over-year growth from a low of 1.3% in June. That capped five consecutive quarters of deceleration from the peak of 3.3% in March 2015.

Bottom Line: The Trump Trade Continues

$GLD $TLT

 

Trumphoria rages on. We suggest buy U.S. stocks. Sell Gold (GLD) and Long Term Bonds (TLT) that perform poorly when U.S. growth is accelerating. There's no sense getting off this train just yet. 


Cartoon of the Day: Trump's Pixie Dust

"Warm up your neck before trying to look straight up at the December Small Business Confidence Print!," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough earlier today. The NFIB's Small Business Confidence index spiked to 105.8 today versus 98.4 in November. That was the highest reading since 2004.

read more

Premium insight

ICYMI: Clock Is Ticking On China’s $24 Trillion Debt Time Bomb

If you’re looking for a catalyst that could send China’s flagging economy into a tailspin, here’s one: The People’s Bank of China is pulling money out of the system in an effort to defend the yuan. But that could have ramifications for the country’s overheating debt markets too.

read more

How Trump’s (Devastating) Trade Policies Would Impact The Retail Industry

On the campaign trail, the Donald Trump threatened to “impose tariffs of up to 45%” on Chinese goods because under him the U.S. is “not playing games anymore.” These Trump trade policies could change the retail industry forever.

read more

A Brief Primer on Volatility: Is the Nasdaq Overbought?

Is it time to book gains in U.S. equities? It's worth pondering. The Nasdaq is up 9.6% and +5.3% from its November and December lows. The real money in macro markets is obviously made by selling things that are overbought and buying things that are oversold. So what to do now? Here you go...

read more

Premium insight

REPLAY | Special Free Edition of The Macro Show with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough

Did you miss this special (free) edition of The Macro Show? No Worries ... watch the replay here!

read more

Premium insight

Why Exact Sciences Has More Upside (Even Though It’s Up 20% Today)

“We think the marketing opportunity here and execution opportunity here could be big, given that [Cologuard] tests are pretty good and we’ve got a lot of good feedback from physicians,” Tobin says.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: All-Time High

The Nasdaq hit an all-time closing high today. Getting long the Nasdaq is also a great way to play U.S. economic growth accelerating.

read more

ICYMI: Brexit Fears Overdone, Buy British Pound

Removing all doubt that the U.K. would "keep bits of membership" in the European Union, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday, "We're leaving. We're coming out. We're not going to be a member of the EU any longer." The British pound fell more than 1%. We think this is an opportunity to get long the pound.

read more

Premium insight

Will Trump Be More JFK or Eisenhower On Foreign Policy?

Hedgeye National Security analyst LTG Dan Christman USA Ret. dissects the "grand vision" that will shape President-elect Donald Trump's foreign policy agenda. On this grand vision, "two presidential narratives have competed for over half a century," Christman writes, Eisenhower and Kennedy. Christman thinks Trump is more like Eisenhower. Here's why.

read more

This Radical Change is Reshaping the Restaurant Industry… Here’s What It Means for Domino’s | $DPZ

Change is coming to the restaurant industry that will reshape how diners order food. In the coming years, food delivery will be “the most disruptive change in the restaurant industry in this generation,” says Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Premium insight

Keith McCullough's Daily Trading Ranges

This post contains today's Daily Trading Ranges, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's proprietary "buy and sell" levels on major markets, commodities and currencies.

read more