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PREMIUM INSIGHT

Chipotle Is On The Road To $250 | $CMG

Chipotle Is On The Road To $250 | $CMG - chipotle 10 18

There has been a lot of talk that "things are getting better" at Chipotle (CMG). Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney remains deeply skeptical.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

ICYMI: The Industrial Recession Is Over. Here’s What to Buy Now

ICYMI: The Industrial Recession Is Over. Here’s What to Buy Now - ICYMI 1 20 2017 Industrials No Text b

Investors got the “all clear” sign to buy Industrials (XLI) yesterday. It was the only S&P 500 sector that was up on the day. To be clear, we think Industrials is the sector to own as the broader U.S. economy accelerates heading into 2017.


Geopolitical Risk Rising: A Foreign Policy Message From LT General Dan Christman

 

The swearing in of our 45th President marks a historic crossroads for American foreign policy. President Donald Trump has threatened to beat back an assurgent China, slap punitive tariffs on the goods of foreign countries who “don’t play by the rules,” and renegotiate a better deal with—as Trump might say—our thrifty NATO allies. Meanwhile, ISIS remains a global threat and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is flexing his geopolitical muscles.

 

To make matters worse, U.S. and South Korean officials said yesterday that North Korea may be readying two inter-continental ballistic missiles for a test launch in the not-too-distant future.

 

(Click here to read Senior Defense Policy analyst LtGen Emerson "Emo" Gardner’s analysis of the developing North Korea situation.)

 

What’s the future of U.S. global leadership in these uncertain times? In the video above, retired Lieutenant General Dan Christman and Hedgeye Senior National Security Analyst offers some answers.

 

“North Korea is an existential threat to us in the first term of Mr. Trump,” General Christman says. Both President Bush and President Obama were confronted with a Pacific crisis, early in the first year of their presidencies, that required a response from the White House, Defense Department and State Department that was “very delicate,” he says.

 

A working relationship with China is essential in thwarting an ambitious North Korea. Trump must tread lightly. So far, Christman is concerned:

 

“I’ve felt here for months and particularly in the wake of the phone call that President-elect Trump took with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen that this is the state-to-state issue to watch. Mr. Trump thinks he can work out a deal transactionally somehow by leveraging Taiwan. I think that’s a huge mistake. The reason I think it’s a mistake is because we need China’s help with North Korea.”

 

Trump’s tweets may have aggravated an already dicey situation.

 

“As we have seen him tweet and declare, if North Korea tries any additional long range missiles testing, Trump has said he’s not going to allow that to happen. What does that mean? Will he preemptively go after a missile on its launch pad.”

 

 

President Trump hasn’t been a warm welcome to our European allies either. “Mr. Trump does not hold a romantic view about NATO and the European Union,” Christman says. He was shocked to hear Trump suggest more countries might leave the European Union after Britain’s vote to exit.

 

“What one hears from Mr. Trump is American first,” Christman says. “One hopes that there will be an assurgent U.S. leadership.”

 

Time will tell.

 

Want More?

Click here to watch the entire discussion between Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and General Christman.


Poll of the Day: Inauguration Day! Are You Happy? Upset? Or Meh?

Takeaway: The rabble-rousing outsider Donald Trump will put his hand on the Bible today, swear the oath of office and become the 45th US President.

Poll of the Day: Inauguration Day! Are You Happy? Upset? Or Meh? - ztr8

 



Guest Contributor: Stress Management Tips for Traders (Part 2)

Takeaway: You can take control of your psychological well-being to boost your returns.

By David Rosenblatt, Psy.D., MarketPsych

 

Guest Contributor: Stress Management Tips for Traders  (Part 2) - z tra

 

Working with the criminally insane requires both focus and flexibility.

 

Laughter rings out down the hallways; alarms sound over the loudspeakers. If work is to be done I must choose with care when to fully engage with this maelstrom and when to retreat into my mind to create a plan.

 

The first part in this four-part series on stress management for traders introduced three cognitive realms that can be controlled:

  • focus
  • downtime
  • mental exercise

 

Today we continue to explore how flexible focus can help you take control of your mind and boost your returns.

 

We already learned that varying your eyes’ focal point helps reduces eyestrain and fatigue. Endorsed by the American Academy of Ophthalmology, the nattily named “20/20/20 Rule” suggests that every 20 minutes, take a 20-second break to focus your eyes on something at least 20 feet away. Following this simple rule will also help keep the mind loose and limber.

 

Now let’s address the elephant in the room: screen time. Defined as viewing computer monitors, cell phone screens, or televisions, Americans spend nearly eleven hours a day looking at screens. Too much screen slows processing speed, hurts mood, and degrades eyesight. In the extreme, the brains of teens addicted to Internet gaming have been found to shrink in volume. In short, too much screen time can lead to faulty focus, slowed speed, attenuated attention, and poor judgment.

 

The negatives of too much screen time don’t stop there. A sedentary (seated) lifestyle combined with mindless eating and drinking means weight gain.

 

Sensing shoddier performance, people often turn to caffeine and other psychostimulants. However, these substances can cause jittery nerves and impair sleep. Too much caffeine can make the mind brittle.

 

In addition to the “20/20/20 Rule,” here are some practical ways to deal with the cognitive and physical strain of increased screen time. Every hour take a five-minute break to stretch, go for a walk, or talk with a colleague.

 

The Mayo Clinic recommends stretches at your desk such as:

  1. Pull your arm across your chest
  2. Pull your elbow down your back
  3. Open your arms wide
  4. Roll your head
  5. Stand and touch your toes

 

This 5-minute break will give your eyes and brain a chance to change focus for a while. It will also get your blood pumping and reinvigorate you. The hourly break will combat mindless eating or drinking, helping to maintain healthy caloric intake and reducing the need for caffeine. It all supports focus and mental flexibility.

 

Remember, you can take control of your psychological well-being to boost your returns. In the next article, we’ll learn why it is important to respect the night as a time for relaxation and reality.

EDITOR'S NOTE

This is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor piece written by David M. Rosenblatt Psy.D. Dr. Rosenblatt is an investor coach for MarketPsych, an expert in stress management, and an avid individual investor. Additionally he works with the California Department of State Hospitals treating Mentally Disordered Offenders. He may be contacted with questions or comments at david@marketpsych.com. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.


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