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THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 20, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 15 points or -0.93% downside to 1155 and 0.35% upside to 1170. Equity futures are trading above fair value and close to session peaks as markets recover some of their poise in the wake of yesterday's decline.

Earnings remain a key focus this morning, while the Beige Book will provide the main economic focus.

  • Cree (CREE) 2Q sales forecast missed est.
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3Q rev. missed est.
  • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4Q sales, adj. EPS may beat est. 
  • Stryker (SYK) 2010 EPS forecast exceeds est., raises FY EPS bottom end forecast
  • Western Digital (WDC) 1Q adj. EPS beat est.
  • Yahoo! (YHOO) forecast 4Q sales below est.

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (1.48%), S&P (1.59%), Nasdaq (1.76%), Russell 2000 (2.25%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +1.77%, S&P +2.16%, Nasdaq +2.88%, Russell +2.66%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.28%, S&P +4.56%, Nasdaq +7.39%, Russell +10.99%
  • Sector Performance: Materials (2.56%), Energy (1.99%), , Healthcare (1.88%), Consumer Disc (1.81%), Tech (1.77%), Industrials (1.33%), Financials (1.39%), Consumer Spls (1.22%), Utilities 0.19%.

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1977 (-2961)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1271.64 (+27.65%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Massey Energy +4.98%, Capital One +4.11% and Parker Hannifin +3.67%/Supervalue -14.92%, Harley Davidson -6.74% and Urban Outfitters -6.12%.
  • VIX: 20.63 +8.41% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-4.84%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.46 from 1.45 +0.86%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.66 -0.265 (-1.664%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% -0.01%  
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.13 from 2.14

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 292.98 -1.93%
  • Oil: 79.49 -4.32% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 375.75 -2.53% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,341.00 -2.21% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3812 -1.27% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.752 +1.62%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: +0.33%; DAX +0.19%; CAC 40 +0.21%
  • Major indices have reversed opening losses to trade in the black helped by a recovery in financials and firmer metals prices which has helped drive mining shares higher.
  • BASF (BAS.GR) hiked its 2010 forecasts.
  • UK BoE minutes show MPC split on QE, Chancellor Osborne to give a statement on Spending Review.
  • German Govt forecasts growth of +3.4% in 2010 and +1.8% in 2011
  • Germany Sep PPI +3.9% y/y vs cons +3.8%

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei (1.65%); Hang Seng (0.87%); Shanghai Composite +0.07%
  • Regional markets closed lower, with metals and resources stocks leading declines on China’s interest-rate hike.
  • China reversed an initial 1.8% drop to close in positive territory, though property stocks showed substantial losses.
  • Blue chips traded lower in Japan, and China-related stocks fell significantly as all 33 sectors fell.
  • Gold miners fell in Australia on lower prices 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - outlook image

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER