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MACAU SLOWS DRAMATICALLY POST GOLDEN WEEK

Table revs thru the 17th were HK$10.8bn. Normalizing the rest of the month would produce 47% YoY growth (HK $18bn) for October, below expectations of $HK20bn.

The Golden Week honeymoon is over and business levels in Macau in the past week have slowed substantially.  Table revenue per day in the first 10 days was HK$868m but only HK$320m in the last 7 days.  Assuming only HK$320m per day for the rest of the month (taking into account weekend vs weekdays) and adding in slot revenue produces full month October revenue of only HK$16.2 billion, up 32% YoY.  However, we believe the last week was unusually slow due to the end of the Golden Week honeymoon and business will “normalize” for the rest of the month.  If we normalize the last two weeks of October at the average daily revenue for the year, then full month would come in at HK$18.0b, up 47%.  We think this is more realistic.  Either way, the numbers are a disappointment from consensus expectations of HK$20b following the strong Golden Week.

In terms of market share, both Wynn and MPEL lost share since we reported on the numbers through the 10th.  Galaxy’s share has started to normalize and MGM continued to hold an above trend share, which we expect to continue.  Here are the numbers through 10/17:

MACAU SLOWS DRAMATICALLY POST GOLDEN WEEK - macau1