Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
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Yes, I see that. SPY is down an epic -1.1% from its all-time closing high. What a bear market that looks like, eh? With our 4 Horsemen (XLF, XLB, XLI, and XLE) running hot, why wouldn’t new all-time closing highs for SPY be pending? Behaviorally, we have both sentiment and market positioning on our side too. Yesterday’s implied volatility PREMIUMS on SPY and XLI ramped to +45% and +93% (vs. 30-day realized volatility), respectively. No, those aren’t typos. And no, most people don’t even know what those panic/fear signals mean. That’s totally cool with me. If Old Wall people want to believe that one-off “calls” or a one-dimensional moving average would help them understand submarine turbulence, let them be selling to us on those assumptions. |
