THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 15, 2010

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -0.92% downside to 1163 and 0.87% upside to 1184. Equity futures are trading modestly above fair value in what has been a quiet pre market session with most investors sidelined ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Boston Fed Conference which starts at 08.15 ET.

 

Most don't believe Bernanke will say QE is a given, but on the flip side he is unlikely to dissuade the market from the notion that it's coming sometime soon.  Elsewhere, it is a fairly busy session for corporate and macro releases with Sep Retail Sales and Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 3Q rev. beat est.

  • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 3Q rev. missed est, guidance narrowed
  • Google (GOOG) 3Q earnings beat est.
  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) 3Q earnings missed est.
  • Seagate Technology (STX) confirmed it got a “primary indication of interest” to take it private.
  • EPS from GE beat consensus, but missed on revenues.

 

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.01%), S&P (0.36%), Nasdaq (0.24%), Russell 2000 (0.25%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.84%, S&P +2.86%, Nasdaq +2.82%, Russell +4.22%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.39%, S&P +5.26%, Nasdaq +7.33%, Russell +12.68%
  • Sector Performance: Financials (1.78%), Materials (0.95%), Industrials (0.58%), Utilities (0.16%), Consumer Disc (0.12%), Healthcare (0.19%),Energy (0.15%), Consumer Spls +0.04%, Tech +0.04%.

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -572 (-2104)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1110.61 (-12.58%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: EMC +4.48%, Yahoo +4.46% and First Solar +3.89%/Apollo -23.25%, Devry -16.83% and H&R Block -10.08%.
  • VIX: 19.88 +4.25% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-8.03%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.49 from 1.27 +17.00%

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.42
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.09

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 299.93 +0.06%
  • Oil: 82.69 -0.39% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 381.55 -0.13% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,374.80 +0.36% - BULLISH

 

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4053 +0.75% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 76.647 -0.55%  - BEARISH

 

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

 

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.28%); DAX +0.19%; CAC 40 +0.15%
  • Major indices are treading water ahead of Bernanke's speech in Boston.
  • News flow across the continent has been light with trading volumes reported to be light.
  • Weakness across the mining sector on profit taking has offset small gains seen across the financial services space
  • Eurozone Sep Final CPI +1.8% y/y vs prelim +1.8% and prior +1.6%
  • ACEA new passenger car Registrations for the EU+EFTA (18.6%) y/y in Sept

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei (0.87%); Hang Seng (0.40%); Shanghai Composite +3.19%
  • Most markets fell, but tech stocks rose after earnings releases from AMD and GOOG.
  • China bucked the regional trend to post a healthy gain.
  • Hong Kong recovered early losses but still declined.
  • Exporters led Japan down after yesterday’s rise; financials followed their US peers lower

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more