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THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 15, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -0.92% downside to 1163 and 0.87% upside to 1184. Equity futures are trading modestly above fair value in what has been a quiet pre market session with most investors sidelined ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Boston Fed Conference which starts at 08.15 ET.

Most don't believe Bernanke will say QE is a given, but on the flip side he is unlikely to dissuade the market from the notion that it's coming sometime soon.  Elsewhere, it is a fairly busy session for corporate and macro releases with Sep Retail Sales and Oct Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 3Q rev. beat est.

  • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 3Q rev. missed est, guidance narrowed
  • Google (GOOG) 3Q earnings beat est.
  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) 3Q earnings missed est.
  • Seagate Technology (STX) confirmed it got a “primary indication of interest” to take it private.
  • EPS from GE beat consensus, but missed on revenues.

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow (0.01%), S&P (0.36%), Nasdaq (0.24%), Russell 2000 (0.25%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.84%, S&P +2.86%, Nasdaq +2.82%, Russell +4.22%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +6.39%, S&P +5.26%, Nasdaq +7.33%, Russell +12.68%
  • Sector Performance: Financials (1.78%), Materials (0.95%), Industrials (0.58%), Utilities (0.16%), Consumer Disc (0.12%), Healthcare (0.19%),Energy (0.15%), Consumer Spls +0.04%, Tech +0.04%.

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -572 (-2104)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1110.61 (-12.58%)
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: EMC +4.48%, Yahoo +4.46% and First Solar +3.89%/Apollo -23.25%, Devry -16.83% and H&R Block -10.08%.
  • VIX: 19.88 +4.25% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-8.03%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.49 from 1.27 +17.00%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 15.42
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.14% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.14 from 2.09

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 299.93 +0.06%
  • Oil: 82.69 -0.39% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 381.55 -0.13% - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,374.80 +0.36% - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4053 +0.75% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 76.647 -0.55%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

European markets:

  • FTSE 100: (0.28%); DAX +0.19%; CAC 40 +0.15%
  • Major indices are treading water ahead of Bernanke's speech in Boston.
  • News flow across the continent has been light with trading volumes reported to be light.
  • Weakness across the mining sector on profit taking has offset small gains seen across the financial services space
  • Eurozone Sep Final CPI +1.8% y/y vs prelim +1.8% and prior +1.6%
  • ACEA new passenger car Registrations for the EU+EFTA (18.6%) y/y in Sept

Asian markets:

  • Nikkei (0.87%); Hang Seng (0.40%); Shanghai Composite +3.19%
  • Most markets fell, but tech stocks rose after earnings releases from AMD and GOOG.
  • China bucked the regional trend to post a healthy gain.
  • Hong Kong recovered early losses but still declined.
  • Exporters led Japan down after yesterday’s rise; financials followed their US peers lower

Howard Penney

Managing Director