THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 13, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.26% downside to 1155 and 0.62% upside to 1177. Equity futures are trading above fair value in a continuation of yesterday's bounce which saw the S&P 500 close higher after recovering from an intraday low. Risk appetite was helped by the release of Fed minutes which reiterated the FOMC's resolve to take action if the economic recovery remained sluggish.

  • Adtran (ADTN) reported 3Q EPS 50c vs est. 43c
  • Chevron (CVX) sees 3Q earnings lower than 2Q on weaker dollar, drilling ban, lower crude prices
  • CSX (CSX) reported 3Q EPS $1.08 vs est. $1.04
  • Intel (INTC) forecast 4Q rev. $11.0b-$11.8b, vs est. $11.3b
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) sees 2Q rev. unch. to down 4% Q/Q vs est. 1% drop to $384.8m
  • MGM Resorts International (MGM) plans 40.9m stock offering; biggest shareholder will reduce stake

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.09%, S&P +0.38%, Nasdaq +0.65%, Russell 2000 +0.37%
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.15%, S&P +2.50%, Nasdaq +2.08%, Russell +2.94%.
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.68%, S&P +4.90%, Nasdaq +6.56%, Russell +11.30%
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Financials +1.12%, Tech +0.60%, Materials +0.26%, Consumer Spls +0.25%, Healthcare +0.23%, Consumer Disc +0.23%, Industrials (0.06%), Energy (0.15%), Utilities (0.41%)

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +357 (+39)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 923.14 (+11.5%)  
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: King Pharma +39.41%, Salesforce +5.57% and Starbucks +4.42%/Electronic Arts -5.83%, Fastenal -4.84% and Gamestop -2.80%.
  • VIX: 18.96 -8.45% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-12.54%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.49 from 1.69 -11.74%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 17.75 0.304 (1.743%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.07 from 2.06

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 297.83 +0.49%
  • Oil: 81.67 +1.22% - BULLISH
  • COPPER: 378.95 unch - OVERBOUGHT
  • GOLD: 1,347.10 -0.47 - BULLISH

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3867 -0.15% - BULLISH
  • DOLLAR: 77.363 -0.10%  - BEARISH

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • FTSE 100: +1.13%; DAX +1.43%; CAC 40 +1.41%
  • Major indices are broadly higher led by strong gains across the Basic Resource, Oil & Gas and Technology sectors as investors digest the latest FOMC minutes which appeared to go further than most analysts had expected.
  • Financials reacted positively although Barclay's shares are weak on talk it may be considering a rights issue
  • Standard Chartered has announced plans to raise £3.3B in a rights issue ahead of the introduction of Basel III's capital rules
  • Eurozone Aug Industrial Production 7.9% y/y vs cons 7.5%
  • France Sep Final CPI +1.8% vs prelim +1.8%
  • UK Aug ILO unemployment rate 7.7% vs cons 7.8%  

Asian

  • Nikkei +0.16%; Hang Seng +1.45%; Shanghai Composite +0.70%
  • Markets closed mixed in the wake of yesterday's FOMC's minutes and INTC's earnings.
  • The Nikkei closed up as the dollar firmed slightly vs the yen bouying exporters, and Japan August factory orders were announced to be +10.1% m/m vs expectations of +4.5%.
  • Hang Seng reversed losses to close up +1.45% after property stocks fell following the government's announcement it will temporarily cease to grant residency to foreigners who invest in the city
  • China reported a Sep trade surplus of $16.9B, down from $20.0B in Aug 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER