THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 12, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.06% downside to 1153 and 0.66% upside to 1173. Equity futures are trading below fair value in reaction to fairly steep falls seen across Asian and European markets overnight as a firmer dollar sparks some profit taking in risky assets.

The main event for today is this afternoon's important FOMC minutes which will be scrutinized for any fresh insight into the Fed's preconditions for implementing additional QE; after the close Intel (INTC) will report Q3 earnings.

  • ActivIdentity agrees to be bought by Sweden’s Assa Abloy for $3.25-shr; 43% premium to yesterday’s close
  • Deere (DE) maker said Sept. retail utility tractor sales fell single digits vs industry sales down 11%
  • GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK) Hycamtin drug can be toxic to bone marrow when added to most common initial chemotherapy for advanced ovarian cancer, study says
  • Global Payments (GPN) reported 1Q adj. EPS 67c vs est. 69c, sales $440.1m vs est. $438.4m
  • Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) will decrease research related to new compounds and cut jobs by 25%; expects to incur one- time charge in 4Q, mostly offset by reduced payroll expenses
  • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) said new Prolaris product accurately predicts prostate cancer survival

 PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.03%, S&P +0.01%, Nasdaq +0.02%, Russell (0.04%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +2.06%, S&P +2.11%, Nasdaq +1.42%, Russell +2.56%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +2.06%, S&P +2.11%, Nasdaq +1.42%, Russell +2.56%
  • Year-to-date: Dow: +5.58%, S&P +4.5%, Nasdaq +5.87%, Russell +10.89%

 EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -318 (-1149)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 827.90 (-12.25%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Energy +0.27%, Technology +0.17%, Consumer Staples +0.11%, Healthcare +0.06%, Utilities +0.03%, Consumer Discretionary +0.03%, Financials (0.14%), Materials (0.18%) and Industrials (0.26%)
  •  MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Wynn +8.45%, NY Times +7.11% and Supervalue +7.75%/Citrix -6.65%, Salesforce -5.63% and Akami -3.81%.
  • VIX: 18.96, -8.45% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (-12.54%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.49 from 1.69, -11.74%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 18.16, 0.710 (4.070%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.12%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.06 from 2.06

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 296.37 +1.26%
  • Oil: 82.21 -0.54%
  • COPPER: 378.95 +0.40%
  • GOLD: 1,353.45 +0.71%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3888 -0.37%
  • DOLLAR: 77.442 +0.15%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • European markets: FTSE 100: (1.11%); DAX (0.96%); CAC 40 (1.56%)
  • Major indices are weaker in early trade in response to falls seen across Asia with weak commodity prices weighing on mining names, with financials also acting as a drag in response to China temporarily raising its reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% to a historical high of 17.5% for 6 major banks.
  • South Korea's Posco's (PKX) disappointing outlook statement weighs on European steel makers
  • Germany Fin Min spokesman says against extension of Greek repayment plan for EU/IMF bailout loan
  • Germany Sep Final CPI +1.3% y/y vs Prelim +1.3%
  • UK Sep CPI 3.1% y/y vs cons 3.1%, RPI +4.6% y/y vs cons +4.4% 

Asian

  • Nikkei (2.09%); Hang Seng (0.37%); Shanghai Composite +1.23%
  • Markets closed broadly lower ahead of the much anticipated release of the FOMC's September meeting minutes later today.
  • The continuing weakness of the dollar vs the yen has the Nikkei trading lower as any remaining luster from the BOJ's surprise rate cut last week appears to have vanished as investors are now focused on additional Fed easing.
  • Shanghai reversed earlier losses to close at its highest level in five months, after gains in commodity stocks and autos, offset drops in banks following a surprise temporary rise in reserve requirements 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER