DEEP DIVE IN MACAU'S SEPTEMBER NUMBERS

A surprisingly strong month with mostly hold driven market share moves.

 

 

For what's supposed to be a seasonally slow month, September came in quite strong with total gaming revenues growing 39% to $1.9BN - just below August's numbers.  MGM stole the show in September growing 83% YoY. This shouldn't be a surprise given MGM's pending IPO, new property management and aggressive credit extensions. MPEL enjoyed its second month in the top 3. Wynn lost the most share in September due to a combination of factors - including difficult hold comparisons and low hold.

 

That being said, September is history as all eyes are now on October's record pace to break HK$20BN.  Below is the detail for September.

 

 

YoY Table Revenue Observations

 

LVS table revenues increased 35% with growth coming from a 42% increase in VIP revenues and a 23% increase in Mass revenues.

  • Sands grew 3%
    • VIP revenues declined 2% despite only a 1% decline in Junket RC volume
    • 13% increase in Mass revenues
  • Venetian was up 43%
    • VIP revenues increased 54%
    • Mass revenues increased 29%
    • Junket RC increased 15% YoY.  Assuming 22% direct VIP play volume, we estimate that hold for September was 2.6%.  However, last September, assuming 17% direct play, the hold percentage was even worse at 2.0%.
  • Four Seasons was up 130%
    • Mass revenues grew 28%
    • VIP revenues increases 158%, in-line with growth in Junket VIP RC volumes
    • If we assume over 50% VIP turnover came from direct play, hold was 3%, compared to estimated hold of 2.3% in September 2009.

Wynn Macau/Encore table revenues were up 21%, driven by a 16% increase in VIP revenues and a 44% increase in Mass revenues

  • Junket RC volume increased 43% compared to a market increase of 42%, so it does appear that if not for hold issues, Wynn would have held their own
  • Assuming direct play volumes at Wynn were roughly 12%,  Wynn's hold was 2.6% in September compared to 3.1% hold assuming the same direct play volume ratio in September 2009.

MPEL table revenues grew 29% with the growth fueled by 98% growth in Mass and 21% growth in VIP

  • Altira was up 19%, due to a 15% increase in VIP revenues and a 105% increase in Mass
    • VIP revenue growth was entirely due to favorable YoY hold comparisons.  VIP RC was down 16% YoY. 
    • We estimate that hold in September was 3.5% vs. 2.5% in September 2009
  • CoD table revenue increased 35% YoY, driven by 97% growth in Mass and 26% growth in VIP revenues
    • Mass revenues were $36MM
    • Junket VIP RC increased 41%
    • CoD played lucky in September, but they also played lucky last year.  If we assume 18% direct play at CoD, hold was 3.2% in September vs. an estimated hold of 3.6% last year.

SJM table revenues grew 37%

  • Mass was up 31% and VIP was up 40%
  • Junket RC volumes increased 71%
  • SJM's hold was only 2.7%, compared to a very low hold 3.3% in September 2009.  October will have an easy hold comparison since last October's hold rate was only 2.55%.

Galaxy table revenue was up 59%, driven by a 68% increase in VIP win and a 7% increase in Mass

  • Starworld's table revenue soared 103%, driven by 112% growth in VIP revenues and 30% growth in Mass
  • The Group RC volumes were up 30% while Starworld RC volumes increased 39%.  VIP revenues for the Group and Starworld benefited from strong hold.  September hold for the Group and Starworld was 3.2% and 3.46%, respectively, compared to low holds of 2.5% and 2.3% last year.  October 2009 hold rates were normal.

Not surprisingly, MGM reported the strongest growth in the month of September, with growth of 86%

  • Mass revenue growth was 56%, while VIP revenues grew 97%
  • VIP RC grew 85%
  • Hold appears to have been normal in September at roughly 2.9%

 

Table Market Share

 

LVS table share dropped 20bps sequentially to 19.1%

  • LVS's share of VIP revenues increased 20 bps in October, along with a 20 bps increase in LVS's share of Junket RC
  • Mass share increased by 100 bps to 26.3%
  • Sands market share increased by 35bps off of a 63bps increase in VIP share
  • Venetian lost 209bps to 9.5% sequentially, their lowest share in 12 months
    • Venetian's share loss was mostly driven by a 210bps decrease in VIP, while Mass share lost 53bps.
  • FS share gained 150bps of share to 3.4% due to a 218bps increase in VIP share

WYNN's table share decreased to 12.0%, its lowest share in 10 months; it was also below the TTM average pre-Encore opening market share of 13.8%.

  • Mass market increased 115bps to 10.2%
  • VIP revenue share decreased 2.9% to 12.6% sequentially. Part of the decrease was attributed to low hold, as Wynn's VIP RC share only decreased 90bps to 13.9%
  • Wynn's VIP share fell to 5th place behind SJM, MPEL, LVS and Galaxy

Crown's market share was flat sequentially at 16.3% in September

  • Both CoD's and Altira's share were also flat sequentially at 10.7% and 5.6%, respectively

SJM's share increased by 125bps to 31%

  • SJM's share gain was entirely driven by a 220bps of share in VIP to 28%
  • Mass share dropped 100bps to 40.2% sequentially

Galaxy's share slipped 1% to 12.1%, driven by a 150bps decrease in VIP share

  • Starworld's market share decreased 39bps sequentially to 10.5%, due to a 64bps decrease in VIP share
  • Junket RC share decreased 100bps to 12% for Starworld and decreased 80bps for the Group

MGM's share increased by 192bps to 9.6% - MGM's best share month since August 2009

  • MGM's share gain can be attributed to a 63bps increase in Mass and a 235bps increase in VIP share
  • RC share increased 95bps

 

September Slot Revenue Observations


Slot revenue grew 33% YoY in September reaching $94MM, the second best month in slots following August 2010

  • Wynn experienced the largest growth of 60% to $18MM
  • SJM, MPEL and Galaxy's slot revenue all grew around 55% YoY
  • MGM's slot revenue increased 38% to $11MM
  • LVS having the largest base also had the slowest slot growth of 33%, which is nothing to complain about

DEEP DIVE IN MACAU'S SEPTEMBER NUMBERS - TABLE

 

DEEP DIVE IN MACAU'S SEPTEMBER NUMBERS - ROLLING CHIP

 

DEEP DIVE IN MACAU'S SEPTEMBER NUMBERS - MASS


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