This is a one week data point, so let's not get all excited about it yet. That said, I am data dependent and this week's jobless claims # in the US finally brought the 4 wk moving average down, albeit by a hair.
Claims dropped by 10,000 this week to 425,000. This moves the 4 week moving average down by 6,000 to 440,000.
Both the "Trade" and "Trend" in unemployment stats remains negative. If I see 3 consecutive weeks of amelioration, that would move the short term "Trade" to the positive side of my models ledger. I still think US unemployment rates will see 6-7% levels by year end.
As the facts change, I do. Life's easier that way.
KM
Claims dropped by 10,000 this week to 425,000. This moves the 4 week moving average down by 6,000 to 440,000.
Both the "Trade" and "Trend" in unemployment stats remains negative. If I see 3 consecutive weeks of amelioration, that would move the short term "Trade" to the positive side of my models ledger. I still think US unemployment rates will see 6-7% levels by year end.
As the facts change, I do. Life's easier that way.
KM