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Hedgeye Consumables | Grocery Sales Demand Report - 4 7 2021 11 14 22 AM

CPG demand in grocery stores decreased 9% YOY in the week ended March 28, comparing against +28% last year, as seen in the chart below.

CPG demand is down an average of 26% in the first three weeks of comparing to the beginning of the pandemic. CPG demand is down much less than expectations against the +65% average for the first three weeks of the pandemic last year.

Produce demand decreased 3% YOY, indicating only a slight decrease in at-home meal consumption.

Produce demand was up 12% in the same week a year ago. Beverage alcohol demand was down 8% YOY for the week, improving from -22% in the week prior. Kroger’s SSS are expected to be down HSD% in Q1.

It is important to remember many aspects of where meals are consumed are not back to pre-pandemic levels.

Only 20% of the country is fully vaccinated at this point, and even those who are have not shown a quick resumption of pre-pandemic behavior.

That will take time. The slower return to previous meal consumption could drag out the negative SSS beyond five quarters.

Hedgeye Consumables | Grocery Sales Demand Report - groo