Hedgeye Consumables | Grocery Sales Demand Report

04/07/21 11:20AM EDT

Below is a brief excerpt from a complimentary research note written by our Consumables analysts Howard Penney and Daniel BiolsiWe are pleased to announce our new Sector Pro Product Consumables Pro. Click HERE to learn more.

Hedgeye Consumables | Grocery Sales Demand Report - 4 7 2021 11 14 22 AM

CPG demand in grocery stores decreased 9% YOY in the week ended March 28, comparing against +28% last year, as seen in the chart below.

CPG demand is down an average of 26% in the first three weeks of comparing to the beginning of the pandemic. CPG demand is down much less than expectations against the +65% average for the first three weeks of the pandemic last year.

Produce demand decreased 3% YOY, indicating only a slight decrease in at-home meal consumption.

Produce demand was up 12% in the same week a year ago. Beverage alcohol demand was down 8% YOY for the week, improving from -22% in the week prior. Kroger’s SSS are expected to be down HSD% in Q1.

It is important to remember many aspects of where meals are consumed are not back to pre-pandemic levels.

Only 20% of the country is fully vaccinated at this point, and even those who are have not shown a quick resumption of pre-pandemic behavior.

That will take time. The slower return to previous meal consumption could drag out the negative SSS beyond five quarters.

Hedgeye Consumables | Grocery Sales Demand Report - groo

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