THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 7, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -1.1% downside to 1147 and 0.3% upside to 1164. Equity futures are trading mixed to fair value in cautious pre market trading ahead of interest rate decisions in Europe and the start of the Q3 earnings season which sees Alcoa and Micron report after the close.  On the macro front, weekly Jobless Claims and Sep Chain Store sales are today's main highlight.

  • Horace Mann Educators (HMN) says CEO Louis Lower has resigned after being jailed for driving under the influence
  • Immucor (BLUD) cut FY 2011 EPS forecast to $1.08-$1.18, vs est. $1.28
  • InterMune (ITMN) sold worldwide devt., commercialization rights for dannoprevir drug to Roche for $175m
  • NeuStar (NSR) sees 3Q rev. $129m-$130m, vs est. $131.8m
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) filed to sell 4.5m shares

SEPTEMBER RRETAIL SALES:

September comp sales - Retail Metrics estimates sales up. 2.3% in September vs. 1.1% last year and 3.5% in August.  Department store comp sales likely helped by cooler weather and back-to- school shopping.  Discounter’s (ex-WMT) expected to see biggest gain up 3.8%, followed by the Department stores up 3.1%; Specialty apparel up 1.2%; apparel up 1.1% and teen retailers up 0.5%.

PERFORMANCE

  • One day: Dow +0.21%, S&P (0.07%), Nasdaq (0.80%), Russell 2000 (0.58%)
  • Month/Quarter-to-date: Dow +1.66%, S&P +1.64%, Nasdaq +0.51%, Russell +1.36%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +5.17%, S&P +4.02%, Nasdaq +4.91%, Russell +9.58%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -187 (-2089)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 979.93 (-20.92%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Mixed performance (4 sectors were up on the day), but long live the reflation trade!!
  •  MARKET LEADING/LOOSING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Massey energy +6.09%, Canstellation +4.28% and CB Richard +3.11%/Citrix Systems -14.07%, Salesforce.com -7.87% and Red Hat -7.66%.
  • VIX: - 21.49 -1.24% - YTD PERFORMANCE - (-0.88%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: - 1.43 from 1.16 +23.62%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 17.91 0.406 (2.318%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD 0.13% +0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.03 from 2.09

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 289.15 +0.25%
  • Oil: 83.23 +0.50%
  • COPPER: 375.30 +0.71%
  • GOLD: 1,346.70 +0.48%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3925 +0.69%
  • DOLLAR: 77.386 -0.47%

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • European Markets: FTSE 100: 0.04%; DAX: 0.16%; CAC 40: 0.22%
  • European markets currently trade slightly in the green after being down early
  • The majority of sectors trade lower on the day with retail and industrial goods amongst the leading fallers. Basic resources and autos are amongst the gainers.
  • UK Sep Halifax House Price Index (3.6%) m/m vs consensus (0.2%) the largest monthly fall since records began, annual change +2.6% vs consensus +3.9%
  • UK Aug Manufacturing Production +6.0% y/y vs consensus +5.8% and prior revised +5.0%
  • UK Aug Industrial Production +4.2% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and prior +1.9%

Asian

  • Asian Markets: Nikkei (0.07%); Hang Seng +0.02%; Shanghai Composite closed
  • Asian markets were broadly lower as investors remain sidelined ahead of Friday's US jobs data and the reopening of China's markets.
  • The Nikkei opened lower but managed to finish the morning session in positive territory before falling back into negative territory during the afternoon session as the effects of the BOJ's rate decision couldn't stop the dollar from falling to a 15-year low against the yen Wednesday in the face of expected further Fed easing.
  • Australian job numbers came in ahead of expectations, adding 49,500 jobs in September vs expectations of 20,000, though the jobless rate remained 5.1% as expected.
  • Shanghai markets remain closed. 

Howard Penney

Managing Director