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Below are charts and brief excerpts from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Christian Drake.

So, frontrunning higher-order effects is always and everywhere the macro M.O.

Except when it’s not. 

Currently, everybody knows that everybody knows that we’re set to traverse an epic reflationary palooza.

And the first-order gravity associated with the following labor/income/consumption dynamics will continue to define Quad 2’s reality domestically.  The trinity below remain the fulcrum factors of consequence.

  • Payrolls:  Almost every high-frequency indicator (Fed Surveys, Homebase data, Indeed Job Postings, NFIB, etc) continues to point toward large-scale hiring in the services sector.  Positioning for a March NFP disappointment may catch some headlines but it’s not a high probability scenario.   It won’t be high probability the month(s) after either.    
  • Excess Savings:  Through the latest February data, aggregate excess savings totals more than $1.9T (see Chart of the Day below).  And with employment continuing to improve and stimmy checks hitting in March that number is set to breach $2T.  I know at this point we’re desensitized to numbers with 12 zero’s after them, but take a moment to internalize that. 
  • And Don’t Forget:  Households will continue receiving monthly checks from CTC (child tax credit) beginning around July.  And, of course, will get the details on the next $3T in proposed infrastructure spending over the next couple days.

CHARTS OF THE DAY: Excess Savings & Macro Evolution  - CoD Excess Savings Update

Macro evolutions are, of course, path dependent and prevailing conditions carry forward implications that are reasonably definable. I’ll game out the duration sensitivity and probable derivative implications associated with current conditions in the next Early Look. 

Lastly, and as it relates to next-gen asset beauty contests, ‘kind of late’ is better than never with respect to global phase transitions and macro epiphanies. 

As a crypto-phile and agnostic connoisseur of all things objectively amusing … I invite you to indulge in the following (h/t @DocumentingBTC) as you attempt to bootstrap you Tuesday mojo.

CHARTS OF THE DAY: Excess Savings & Macro Evolution  - CoD 2 Crypto