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Takeaway: The recovery in initial claims continues to seesaw as total program claims remain high and largely unmoved.

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State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - 05.28.2020 covid jobs report cartoon  6

HEDGEYE FINANCIALS WEEKLY LABOR MARKET READING

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - Summary 

Regular state claims increased +45K (+6%) w/w to 770K, while new PUA claims decreased -197K (-41%) w/w to 282K.

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - Initial 

The large drop off in PUA claims is attributable to Ohio, which, based on several media stories, has been a source of tremendous claims fraud.

To put things into perspective, Ohio accounts for 3.5% of the U.S. population, but had been comprising 18% of jobless claims. 

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - PUA

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - PUAOhio

Continuing state claims of 4.1 million fell -0.4% w/w.

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - Continuing

Meanwhile, Total Claimants, a figure that is lagged by two weeks, decreased -1.9M (-9%) w/w to 18.2 million.

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - Total

PEUC claims decreased -641K (-12%) w/w to 4.8M.

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - PEUC

Although initial and continuing state claims continue to very slowly trend downwards, both figures remain at dauntingly high levels.

Nonetheless, the projected benefits of refreshed stimulus and the new, greater prospects for additional stimulus following the new Congressional makeup in Washington will more than likely prove successful in further suppressing the symptoms of widespread and increasingly permanent unemployment over the next few months.

State Claims Stumble For Weekly U.I. Claims  - 152627