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Growth in worldwide travel and tourism is slowing and, in some cases, falling in many areas. After perusing my daily First Rain update on this industry, I was taken aback by the number of negative data points coming from across the globe. I’ve included a few in this post.

Keith McCullough has hit on the global macro theme of “It’s global this time” aggressively over the past few months. I’m certain we are seeing a pretty dramatic slowdown in tourism and travel with big negative implications for the hotel industry. As the excerpts below show, Singapore, China, Canada, India, and the UK, to name a few, are struggling to attract tourists. In my 8/18/08 post, “US HOTEL REVPAR ‘LINKED’ TO THE DOLLAR”, I outlined the impact of a now stronger dollar and slowing global growth on international visitation to the US. Most of these hotel companies maintain significant international exposure as well. The US RevPAR growth story died earlier this year and the global RevPAR story is on life support. The only growth story left in lodging involves the continued demand for branded hotel product from overseas owners. With this in mind MAR is the only stock I’d in which I’d even consider a long position. Unfortunately, I’m still a ways away from making that call.


Article excerpts discussing negative travel and tourist trends