THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 29, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.02% downside to 1136 and 0.64% upside to 1155. Equity futures are trading lower, tracking weak trading in European markets with doubts arising if the economic recovery can be sustained.

  • Boeing (BA) got a contract for 124 F/A-18 fighter jets worth $5.3b from U.S. Navy
  • Chelsea Therapeutics International (CHTP) plans $35m share offering
  • CryoLife (CRY) enters global manufacturing agreement with Starch Medical for PerClot
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) says SEC is conducting investigation, requested documents related to rev. recognition practices
  • ModusLink Global Solutions (MLNK) reported 4Q loss per share of $0.58 versus $0.09 Y/Y
  • Standard Microsystems (SMSC) forecast 3Q adjusted EPS of $0.42-$0.43 versus estimate $0.45

PERFORMANCE

  • One day performance: Dow +0.43%, S&P +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.41%, Russell 2000 +1.07%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +8.42%, S&P +9.37%, Nasdaq +12.56%, Russell +12.19%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +11.09%, S&P +11.35%, Nasdaq +12.82%, Russell +10.82%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +4.12%, S&P +2.92%, Nasdaq +4.87%, Russell +8.00%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1171 (+1656)
  • VOLUME - NYSE: 1025.35 (+11.39%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Only three sectors declined yesterday - the positive tone was largely fueled by the reflation sensitive sectors - XLE. Stocks showed some resilience today in the face of continued European sovereign credit contagion concerns and disappointing US economic data - consumer confidence.
  •  MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Walgreen 11.40%, Boston Scientific +7.85% and Washington Post +5.08%/Monsanto -8.14, Flir -3.74% and E*Trade -3.46%
  • VIX: 22.60 +4.10% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+4.24%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.36 from 1.73 +36.42%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 13.83 -0.913 (-6.195%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.16%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.11 from 2.10

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 284.35 unchanged
  • Oil: 76.18 -0.44%
  • COPPER: 363.70 +1.11%
  • GOLD: 1,309.50 +0.96% - up 5 days in a row

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3578 +0.73%
  • DOLLAR: 79.014 -0.41% - up 1 day in the last 8

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • European markets are trading back below breakeven despite a positive start
  • Meanwhile, reports in the FT said the Irish government will inject a further €5B into the Anglo bank and that they will also announce plans to restructure some of the bonds. The FT and the Irish Times this morning report that the Irish government’s estimate of the final cost of bailing out Anglo Irish Bank could reach between €28-30B, below the €35bn estimate by S&P.
  • Elsewhere, while much of Europe is struggling to work amid strikes across the continent. 
  • France Sep Consumer Confidence (35) vs consensus (39) vs prior revised (38) from (39)
  • Eurozone Sep Economic Sentiment Indicator (2) vs consensus (5) and prior (3) 

Asia

  • Asian Markets: Nikkei +0.7%; Shanghai Composite (0.03%)
  • Most Asian markets followed Wall Street up today, boosted by macroeconomic numbers released in the region.
  • Japan rose on a better-than-expected Tankan Survey release.
  • China gave up morning gains and finished flat, with rumors spreading that the country will raise the reserve requirement ratio this weekend.
  • China’s seven-day interbank rates have more than doubled since the beginning of Aug to 2.9% raising the prospects for fiscal tightening.
  • Technology stocks led South Korea up. Retailers advanced on expectations that Chinese tourists next week will result in increased sales.
  • ASX fell 1% in Australia on news that its CEO will step down in July when his contract ends.
  • Japan Q3 large manufacturer Tankan 8 vs consensus 6 and 1 sequential. Q3 large non-manufacturer Tankan 2 vs (2) consensus and (5) sequential. China September PMI 52.9 vs 51.9 prior. 

Howard Penney

Managing Director 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER