CHART OF THE DAY: A|B Testing Process: Quantify Investor Consensus

03/02/21 07:49AM EST

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Back to stocks, as you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (CFTC futures & options positioning):

A) There are consensus net SHORT positions in SPY, Dow, QQQ, and the Russell 2000…
B) Therefore you’d have done the opposite of the Bloomberg headline last week and bought the damn dip

“Contrarian” positions in the US Equity market were the ones that worked again yesterday like:

A) Long of HIGH SHORT INTEREST stocks which were +2.3% on the day to +11.5% in the last month
B) Long of HIGH BETA stocks which were up another +2.5% on the day to +15.7% in the last month

Consider the alternative consensus positions:

A) Long of LOW BETA “High Quality” stocks which were +1.4% on the day and DOWN -0.9% in the last month or
B) Long of LARGE CAP stocks which were +2.2% on the day to only +5.5% in the last month

CHART OF THE DAY: A|B Testing Process: Quantify Investor Consensus  - 10

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