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Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

There were 2 glaringly obvious fundamental reasons why bond yields busted to new Cycle Highs yesterday:

  1. INFLATION – Commodities (CRB Index, 19 Commodities) inflated to new Cycle Highs alongside the Oil price
  2. GROWTH – US Durable Goods Growth #accelerated to +6.3% year-over-year in JAN vs. +2.6% in DEC

Yeah, inside the Durable Goods report you’d have seen that US CAPEX GROWTH was +9.1% year-over-year too! These ROCs (Rate of Change Accelerations, including Oil +75% since NOV) are the most epic any of you have seen in your investing career.

To put +6.3% year-over-year growth in Durable Goods in context (i.e. where data point is on The Cycle’s Sine Curve), when the US economy was coming out of #Quad3/#Quad3 scares in OCT, that growth rate was +0.2%.

And what do you think the US growth rates for both inflation and cyclical growth are going to look like when we lap the April 2020 compares, which were the lowest in the natural history of Cycle Lows?

I get it. Not everyone has a Go Anywhere, Full Investing Cycle, process. Not everyone can go both ways either. But I can.

CHART OF THE DAY: GROWTH | RoC Solid - CoD RoC Solid