THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 27, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.54% downside to 1131 and 0.12% upside to 1150. Equity futures are trading lower as European market struggle for direction with some support coming from M&A activity in the Food & Beverages sector. Gold continues to re-test the $1300 mark. Today's macro highlights include: Chicago Fed.

  • Allergan (AGN) got FDA approval for Ozurdex drug
  • In Barron’s - Best Buy (BBY) may gain as much as 30% in the next year as it increases sales with new products.
  • Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) boosted Q dividend to $0.22 per share from $0.20, vs estimate 20c
  • In Barron’s - DigitalGlobe (DGI) may gain ~30% during the next year as it adds revenues from government, business contracts.
  • Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) plans to sell as much as $100m of mixed securities
  • Hologic (HOLX) 3D mammogram device improves breast-cancer detection when used with conventional mammography, FDA advisers say
  • In Barron’s - JetBlue Airways (JBLU) may rise by 33% or more in next year on business travel, alliances with foreign airlines.
  • LeCroy (LCRY) plans to sell as much as $25m of mixed securities 

PERFORMANCE

  • One day performance: Dow +1.86%, S&P +2.12%, Nasdaq +2.33%, Russell +3.42%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +8.43%, S&P +9.43%, Nasdaq +12.62%, Russell +11.36%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +11.1%, S&P +11.4%, Nasdaq +12.88%, Russell +10%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +4.14%, S&P +2.97%, Nasdaq +4.93%, Russell +7.2%

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1980 (+3196)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1070.72 (+13.38%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: XLI was the best performing sector on Friday buoyed by a better than expected Durable Goods report; notables in the sector - CAT’s +4.6%.  Financials, consumer discretionary, materials, energy and tech were all up over 2%. Technology and Telecom were laggards.
  •  MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: RR Donnelley 7.88%, Micron +7.62% and Allegheny +7.15%/IGT -2.54%, ADM -2.24% and Pioneer Natural -1.92%
  • VIX: 21.71 -9.05% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+0.14%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.57 from 1.70, -7.29%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 14.94
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.15%, -0.1%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.17 from 2.11

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 283.63 +1.25% - up for the last 5 weeks
  • Oil: 76.49 +1.74%  
  • COPPER: 361.80 +0.77% - up 5 of last 6 weeks  
  • GOLD: 1,295.95 +0.05% -  up 7 of the last 8 weeks

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3492 +1.02% - up 6.22% over the past two weeks and 3 of the last 4 weeks
  • DOLLAR: 79.395 -0.77% - Down 4.03% last two weeks and 13 of the last 16 weeks 

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • European markets are trading modestly higher in reaction to Friday's gains seen on the USA and in a follow through to a strong session in Asia.
  • M&A continues to dominate news flow in the absence of any regional macro releases.
  • Irish banking concerns are set to continue ahead of announcements due sometime this week on the cost of the bailout for Anglo Irish Bank.
  • Food & Beverages, Oil & Gas and Travel sectors are pacing advancers.

Asia

  • Asian markets followed Wall Street up today.
  • Commodities-linked firms rose on higher metals prices.
  • Australia enjoyed a broad rally powered by banks and miners.
  • LNG rose 1% after saying it is studying the possibility of a new liquefied natural gas project in Queensland;
  • Japan rose, but consumer lenders plunged on reports that Takefuji , which was suspended, had ¥433.6B in liabilities as of 30-Jun and is preparing to file for bankruptcy. Advancers led decliners almost 3-to-1.
  • Japan August trade surplus ¥103.2B, (37.5%) y/y vs survey +44.3%. August corporate services price index (1.1%) y/y. 

 Howard Penney

Managing Director 

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER

 



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