THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 24, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -1.05% downside to 1113 and 1.62% upside to 1143. Equity futures are trading higher ahead following a weak close yesterday and ahead of key US Durable Orders data later today. Also, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Lacker speaks today on economics and policy, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser speaks on monetary policy. Today's macro highlights include: August Durable Orders at 08:30 ET and Aug New Home Sales at 10:00 ET.

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) forecast 3Q rev. ~$1.58b-$1.64b, vs estimate of $1.71b
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) plans to cut 3% of global workforce during next 6 months
  • Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) reported 4Q rev $257.0m vs estimate of $236.7m
  • Finish Line (FINL) reported 2Q EPS 31c vs est. 36c; rev. $301.1m vs estimate of $317.4m
  • Nike (NKE) reported 1Q EPS 17c vs estimate of 15c
  • Vical (VICL) plans to sell shares, amount undisclosed

PERFORMANCE

  • One day performance: Dow (0.72%), S&P (0.83)%, Nasdaq (0.32%), Russell 2000 (1.20%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +6.47%, S&P +7.20%, Nasdaq +10.08%, Russell +7.77%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +9.09%, S&P +9.13%, Nasdaq +10.33%, Russell +6.46%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +2.25%, S&P +0.87%, Nasdaq +2.55%, Russell +3.75%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1216 (-452)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 944.37 (-1.08%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: All sectors were down and the XLF was the first sector to break TRADE.  The MACRO calendar was somewhat of a mixed bag, with little upside evidence of a recovery in the labor and housing markets.
  • European sovereign contagion concerns continued to escalate - Ireland and Portugal the big focus.  Concerns seemed to be exacerbated by weak Q2 GDP data out of Ireland, along with the seven-month low in the Eurozone September composite PMI.
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Red Hat +9.02%, Washington Post +4.31% and NY Times +4.30%/Novell -6.61%, Wynn -4.53% and Metlife -3.88%
  • VIX: 23.87 +6.04% - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+10.10%)
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.70 from 2.14 -20.57%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 14.13, 0.203 (1.458%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.16% unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.11 from 2.12

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 280.14 +0.45%
  • Oil: 75.18 +0.63%
  • COPPER: 359.05 +0.72%  
  • GOLD: 1,295 +0.48%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3356 -0.07%
  • DOLLAR: 80.01 +0.23%  

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • European markets are trading lower on the back of Irish banking concerns which was offset by better than expected German Ifo business confidence data.
  • Trading remains choppy amid low volumes as investors remain unsure on market direction.
  • Basic resources, Oil & Gas, Construction and Telcos are pacing declining sectors with Autos and industrial Goods showing modest gains.
  • Germany Sep Ifo Business Climate Index 106.8 vs consensus 106.2 and prior 106.7
  • Current Conditions Index 109.7 vs consensus 108.5 and prior 108.2
  • Business Expectations Index 103.9 vs consensus 104.0 and prior 105.2
  • French Q2 GDP revised up to +0.7% vs prev given +0.6%
  • European Automobile Manufacturers' Association;  Commercial Vehicles Registrations +5.4% y/y in July, +10.1% in August

Asia

  • Asian Markets: Nikkei (0.99%); Shanghai Composite (closed)
  • Asian markets were mixed today.  Indonesia +1.81%; India +0.93
  • Automakers led South Korea higher on expectations that the strong yen will harm their Japanese rivals.
  • Technology stocks fell on bad economic data from the US.
  • Miners fell in Australia despite higher metals prices. Rio Tinto fell 1% after it said it would invest $230M to expand its Pilbara operations.
  • Banks followed their US peers down.
  • Japan started down, turned positive as the yen weakened, but then finished down again.  More intervention; the yen is trading at 84.57 to the US dollar.
  • China was closed for Mid-Autumn Festival.
  • Singapore’s industrial production slowed M/M
 
Howard Penney
Managing Director
 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER