The 10-year yield – again and again and again. I guess I’m just going to have to keep saying it.
1.31% is, of course, a new cycle high.
At first rates go up slowly, and then all at once. In conjunction with that, we also have a new cycle high in the steepness of the yield curve.
For those of you who are new to the show, or new to watching cross-asset classes – you take the 10-year yield, subtract the 2-year yield, and you get 120 basis points wide, which is where we’re at now.
And that’s a monster move.
Again this follows the 22 basis points move along the long end of the curve in the last month alone.
As you can see on that chart, what’s interesting here, and maybe the Bitcoin Maxis didn’t know this, but now they will (and we do have a lot of Maxis who are quite happy to understand the cycles).
See that red line? That was the end of the Quad 4 debate back in September.
Then yields started to go up slowly; and then in November when the data clean cut across the board, from both a U.S. and a global perspective, it became #Quad2.
Then interest rates just went up and up and up.