TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 23, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.64% downside to 1127 and 1.03% upside to 1146. Equity futures are trading lower tracking a sell off among European indices. Concerns resurface over the state of the European economies. Banking stocks lead the sell off as Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowers its estimates for US investment banks. Also caution prevails ahead of the jobless claims. Other macro highlights include August Existing Home Sales.

  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) raised FY 2011 EPS growth forecast to 20% from 15%
  • BioMed Realty Trust (BMR) is offering 13.5m shares to fund acquisitions and repay debt
  • DineEquity (DIN) reported domestic comp sales up 2.7% 3Q through Sept. 19
  • Edwards Lifesciences (EW): Sapien valve prevented more deaths than standard treatment, according to study
  • Red Hat (RHT) reported 2Q rev. $219.8m vs estimate $211.5m
  • Steelcase (SCS) forecast 3Q rev. $625m-$650m vs estimate $627.7m
  • Tessco Technologies (TESS): Discovery Group offered to buy remaining shares outstanding at 31% premium to September 21st close
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) plans to sell $375m senior convertible notes


  • One day performance: Dow (0.20%), S&P (0.48%), Nasdaq (0.63%), Russell 2000 (1.20%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +7.24%, S&P +8.10%, Nasdaq +10.43%, Russell +9.08%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +9.88%, S&P +10.05%, Nasdaq +10.68%, Russell +7.75%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +2.98%, S&P +1.72%, Nasdaq +2.88%, Russell +5.03%


  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -764 (+75)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 954.65 (-8.91%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: 4 sectors up and 5 down.  While another meaningful pullback in the dollar offered some semblance of support for the XLB, it failed to underpin the broader risk trade amid heightened concerns about the potential global economic backlash surrounding a competitive currency devaluation push.
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Carmax +8.46%, Sears +5.31% and Alcoa +4.74%/Adobe -19.23%, New York Times -6.52% and Gannett -6.15%
  • VIX: - 22.51 +0.72%  YTD PERFORMANCE: (+3.83%)          
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO:- 2.14 from 2.01 +6.33%


  • TED SPREAD: 14.03 0.304 (2.218%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.16% -0.01%
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.12 from 2.18


  • CRB: 278.89 +0.19%
  • Oil: 74.71 -0.35% - oil continues to flash bearish intermediate term TREND in our model w/ TREND line resist = $76.29; bodes bearish for US economic growth.
  • COPPER: 356.50 +2.41%  
  • GOLD: 1,289 +1.23%


  • EURO: 1.3366 +1.81%
  • DOLLAR: 79.83 -0.76% - US Dollar getting annihilated; breaking to lower-lows like it did in April and August when Dollar Down = bad (as opposed to reflation)



  • UK may be close to introducing additional quantitative easing measures.
  • Disappointing PMIs from across the Eurozone exacerbated the declines.
  • Financial, mining and construction sectors bore the brunt of the limited selling pressure although turnover remains light
  • The Irish Examiner reports, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, has given the strongest indication yet that the riskiest lenders to Anglo Irish Bank will soon be told they will not get all their money back.
  • Astrazeneca announced positive phase II results for Fostamatinib (Rheumatoid arthritis), sees phase III beginning soon
  • French Economy Minister said that a capital surcharge was not a "panacea" for addressing the risk of systemically important banks, and she favored resolution mechanisms and tighter regulation.
  • Eurozone Sep Advanced Services PMI 53.6 vs cons 55.5, Manufacturing PMI 53.60 vs cons 54.50
  • Germany Sep Preliminary Services PMI 54.6 vs cons 57.0, Manufacturing PMI 55.3 vs cons 57.6
  • France Sep Preliminary Manufacturing PMI 55.4 vs cons 55; Services PMI 58.8 vs cons 60.0



  • In quiet trading with the major bourses across the region closed, Asian markets did not move much today.
  • Australia finished barely higher as the effect of stronger miners marginally outweighed the effect of weaker banks.
  • Taiwan finished flat.
  • South Korea was closed for Chusok.
  • China is closed through 24-Sep for Mid-Autumn Festival.
  • Hong Kong was closed for the day after the Mid-Autumn Festival and will re-open tomorrow.
  • Japan was closed for the Autumnal Equinox.
  • The yen is trading at 84.46 to the US dollar. 
Howard Penney
Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends













Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more