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THE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 22, 2010

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or -1.47% downside to 1123 and 0.63% upside to 1147. Equity futures are trading lower tracking amid a sell off among European indices. Today's macro highlights include: MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications and Jul FHFA House Price Index.

  • Adobe Systems (ADBE) forecast 4Q sales $950m-$1b vs est. $1.03b
  • Analogic (ALOG) reported 4Q EPS 56c vs est. 39c 
  • Cintas (CTAS) raised FY EPS forecast to as much as $1.63 from as much as $1.58, vs. est. $1.55
  • EBay (EBAY) said it sees 3Q results near top of July forecast of adj. EPS 35c-37c, rev. $2.13b-$2.18b
  • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) cut 3Q rev. forecast to $161m-$163m from $169m-$177m, vs est. $173.5m
  • Power-One (PWER) plans to buy back 10m shares

PERFORMANCE

  • One day performance: Dow +0.07%, S&P (0.10%), Nasdaq (0.28%), Russell 2000 (0.79%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow +8.62%, S&P +7.45%, Nasdaq +11.13%, Russell +10.4%
  • Quarter-to-date: Dow +10.1%, S&P +10.58%, Nasdaq +11.38%, Russell +9.06%
  • Year-to-date: Dow +3.19%, S&P +2.21%, Nasdaq +3.53%, Russell +6.28%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 839 (-2767)
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1048.08 (+9.66%)  
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Three sectors rose XLI, XLV and XLE.  There was a clear lack of overall direction following the FED announcement yesterday.  The positives were (1) the softening of European sovereign contagion following "successful" debt auctions in Ireland, Spain and Greece. (2) Worries about a double-dip in housing were eased to some extent following better-than-expected August housing starts data and (3) corporate actions also remained a tailwind for sentiment.
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS YESTERDAY: Nvidia +5.42%, Baxter +3.63% and Vulcan Materials +3.14%/Owens-Ill -6.12%, Sandisk -6.11% and NY Times -5.57%
  • VIX: 22.35 +3.95% - over the past week the VIX is higher and so are stocks - YTD PERFORMANCE: (+3.09%)          
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.01 from 2.16 -7.21%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 13.42 -0.538 (-3.857%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.17% unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.18 from 2.25

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 278.36 -0.46%
  • Oil: 74.97 -1.6%% 
  • COPPER: 348.10 -0.67%  
  • GOLD: 1,273 -0.48%

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3128 +0.43%
  • DOLLAR: 80.439 -1.10% - Trading below 80 early on 

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

Europe

  • FTSE 100: (0.55%); DAX (0.98%); CAC 40 (1.14%)
  • Major indices are trading sharply lower after being indicated higher pre-open.
  • Banking shares are leading the selloff on concerns over the state of the global economy.
  • Bank of England minutes: BOE voted 8-1 for 0.5% interest rate in Sept
  • BASF raises 2010 outlook

Asia

  • Nikkei (0.37%); Shanghai Composite (closed)
  • Most Asian markets that were open posted small gains this morning, but settled to small losses by the end of the day.
  • Japan dipped early on a strong yen, but made up some of the loss as the currency weakened.
  • Securities and real estate were up, while insurance and machinery declined. 
 
Howard Penney
Managing Director